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COP28: What Worked, What Didn’t, and What Next?

The UN climate conference delivered more progress than many anticipated — on cutting methane, funding loss and damage, and tripling renewable energy — but it also neglected major priorities. RMI experts share their take.

Originally published on Dec. 21, 2023 at RMI.org: https://rmi.org/cop28-what-worked-what-didnt-and-what-next/

The 2023 UN climate summit, which wrapped on December 13, delivered progress across several critical global priorities and defied early prognostications that COP28 — hosted by Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters — would bog down in dissent.

On the conference’s first day came a surprise agreement to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund, a long contentious issue between low-income, low-emissions countries, and wealthy heavy emitters. Soon thereafter came a spate of deals to rapidly lower the leakage of methane, a super-warming gas, from government, NGO, and corporate players.

And on the event’s final day came a historic, unanimous agreement on “transitioning [the world] away from fossil fuels in energy systems… in a just, orderly and equitable manner.” Complementing that milestone: a commitment to triple the world’s capacity of wind, solar, and other renewable energy by 2030, concurrent with a doubling of the pace of energy efficiency gains.

“COP28 has clarified to everyone that the direction of the transition is clear,” said RMI CEO Jon Creyts. “The energy transition is unstoppable.”

Even as the clean energy shift gathers pace, COP28’s final statement also offered a stark reminder of the urgency for faster action. The “global stocktake,” the UN’s inventory of the world’s progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, concluded that we are well off track to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, as agreed to in Paris.

To limit warming to the Paris target, emissions would need to fall by 43 percent by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035, relative to 2019 levels. For now, emissions are on track to fall by just 5 percent come 2030, and only if every country’s commitment is met. Consequently, the world remains on a path to heat by up to 2.8°C by the turn of the century, almost twice the 1.5°C goal.

For RMI’s on-the-ground work, COP28’s complex climate diplomacy nets out as a cause for optimism. As never before, the agreement galvanized global governmental consensus in line with many of our long-standing goals, particularly around speeding the shift to cleaner, safer energy, reducing methane, and the just energy transition. At the same time, the agreement did not resolve pressing areas, such as financing, that will be essential to achieve its goals.

Below, RMI experts weigh in on the implications of the conference’s big advances, as well its less covered wins, along with a few misses.

Multiple methane wins

Over 80 times more potent near term than carbon dioxide (CO2) as a warming agent, methane offers huge potential to quickly cut global greenhouse gas emissions. And to keep 1.5. degrees within reach this decade, oil and gas methane leaks must go to near zero. What’s more, the technical solutions are here now, and the economics are highly favorable, with over half of the fixes yielding a profit or zero net cost. RMI Principal TJ Conway highlights COP28’s methane wins.

Oil and gas commitment. Heading into COP28, methane reductions ranked as a top prospect to deliver major progress on emissions reductions. One of the biggest wins in delivering on this promise came with the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC). Signatories committed to reaching “near zero” methane leakage and flaring by 2030, an ambitious goal under a tight timeline. Beyond its scale, this multistakeholder effort was notable for the buy-in of global oil giants such as BP, ExxonMobil, and Shell, along with national oil companies (NOCs), many of which are otherwise insulated from pressures to set climate goals. NOCs represented a remarkable 60 percent of participants. The US EPA also released stricter regulations on methane emissions.

Building accountability. The bulk of the methane discussions at COP28 focused on the need to accelerate implementation — namely, how to establish accountability mechanisms and metrics to ensure that companies credibly and rapidly meet their OGDC commitments. In coordination with OGDC — and together with Bloomberg Philanthropies, EDF, the IEA, and UNEP via the International Methane Observatory — RMI unveiled a new initiative that will help advance transparency and enforce accountability around claims of methane emissions reductions.

Financing methane reductions delivered another front of progress. The World Bank’s announcement of a new $255 million trust fund through the revamped Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership was welcomed, especially given that many NOCs need technical and financial support. As funding to reduce methane multiplies, financial institutions need more robust ways to track and validate carbon reductions in their lending portfolios;  stronger standards will unlock more funding for reductions. For a fuller explanation of RMI’s work to establish supporting standards for lenders, see “Carbon on balance sheets may go up before they can go down” below.

Curtailing waste methane. Progress on methane extended past the petroleum patch. The waste sector, including solid waste and wastewater, is the third largest contributor to methane emissions, responsible for almost 20 percent of the global total. And as part of COP28, RMI and Clean Air Task Force, with funding support from The Global Methane Hub and Google.org, unveiled the Methane Assessment Platform (WasteMAP), a new, open, online tool that aggregates and maps reported, modeled, and observed waste methane emissions data to help guide reductions.

Scaling green industry

Perfecting clean technologies — from lower-carbon recipes for steel to sustainable aviation fuels — isn’t enough. Industry must also change how it does business, such as developing better ways to finance, buy, and cultivate long-term demand for low-carbon solutions. RMI’s Charlotte Emerson discusses the major initiatives RMI took part in at COP28 to spur these sorts of market-based advances in strategic industries.

Hydrogen. Given its potential to help other heavy-emitting sectors — such as steel and shipping — decarbonize, green hydrogen is a top priority. The Green Hydrogen Catapult launched the report The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe, at the event Trading Green Hydrogen to Bolster Energy Security, which focused on the value of renewable hydrogen exports in promoting global energy security. The Green Hydrogen Catapult signed a joint declaration in partnership with UN High-Level Climate Champions on the Responsible Deployment of Renewables-Based Hydrogen, addressing the need for mutual recognition of a broad range of recommendations guiding the deployment of renewables-based hydrogen around the world.

Steel. RMI co-hosted an event with the World Economic Forum’s First Movers Coalition and corporations across the industrial supply chain to speed the decarbonization of heavy industry. A centerpiece of this push, RMI’s Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform, demonstrates how connecting ambitious buyers and suppliers through demand-side measures can accelerate the shift to low-emissions steel. RMI also signed the Steel Standards Principles, an effort to harmonize the methodology and standards to define lower emissions steel.

Shipping. The UN High-Level Climate Champions and RMI’s Green Hydrogen Catapult facilitated the Green Hydrogen and Green Shipping Call to Action, committing 30 shipping sector actors to firm targets to use nearly 11 million tons of renewables-based hydrogen fuel adoption this decade — nearly 10 percent of all fuel consumption. A related event, Clearing the Last Mile: Opportunities for Supplying Zero-Emission Fuels at Ports, unveiled initial findings on the cost and ability of key ports to supply the zero-emission shipping fuels of the future by 2030 from a forthcoming study undertaken by RMI and Global Maritime Forum under the flag of the Zero-Emission Shipping Mission.

Aviation. RMI, together with the Environmental Defense Fund and the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA) launched the SAFc Registry, a not-for-profit sustainable aviation fuel certificate registry that will transparently and rigorously connect corporate aviation customers to clean fuel deployment, reducing emissions from air travel and air freight.

Aluminum. Financial institutions play an essential behind-the-scenes role in funding investment in greener options. Consider aluminum, which is playing a rising role in the energy transition as a lightweight, highly recyclable material in everything from wind turbine components to solar panel framing. To encourage a shift toward production of low-emissions aluminum, RMI unveiled the Sustainable Aluminum Finance Framework a tool for banks to benchmark their aluminum clients and collaboratively develop decarbonization pathways with industry.

Prioritizing, and funding, a just energy transition

The push to gather funding to compensate poor, low-emitting countries for harm they are experiencing from climate change has been contentious and opposed for 30 years at past COPs by heavy emitters, including the United States. COP28 delivered laudable progress in funding commitments. Above all, improved and expedited access to climate funds will be critical for the most vulnerable countries. For future COPs, the issue persists as one of the most urgent — and delicate — fronts. RMI Senior Principal Laetitia De Marez explains.

Loss and damage. The push to gather funding to compensate poor, low-emitting countries for harm they are experiencing from climate change has been contentious, opposed at past COPs by heavy emitters, including the United States. COP28 delivered laudable progress in funding commitments. Above all, improved and expedited access to climate funds will be critical for the most vulnerable countries. Many were surprised then, to see COP28’s first day deliver an agreement on the loss and damage fund, with funding and an agreement to house it at the World Bank. Pledges quickly stacked up: Over $700 million has been committed initially, including $17.5 million from Washington, a pledge which, while nominal, marks the end of US oppositionThe tally remains far short of the $100 billion target requested by developing countries, but the establishment of a vehicle is a critical step to bring in ongoing funding and distribute it.

Reforming multilateral development banks. It’s a big step forward. But the financial gap remains considerable compared to the capital needed to fund a fast, yet just, transition. The reform of the multilateral development banks (MDBs, such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and others) must continue and deepen. They need to transition their portfolios, terms, conditions, and policies away from future fossil deals and fully switch to Paris-aligned investment priorities.

Public-private financial collaboration. The climate funds and the MDBs have a critical role to play in mobilizing international and national private sectors by de-risking and aggregating projects in the regions. The imperative is growing to blend public and private sources of capital — a shift that is underway but must be streamlined and scaled (more on this in the next section on global financiers).

Capacity building: Skills, workforce, regulations. International capacity-building support and technology transfer mechanisms to enable the energy transition remain underfunded and undersized. Transitioning energy systems cannot be achieved without a skilled workforce, trained energy leaders, regulators, innovators, and developers.

Defining a better transition. It remains unclear what a just and equitable transition means for different countries: What are the developmental, resilience, economic, and social progress elements of the just transition? Research and consultations are urgently needed to define and tailor strategies to each country’s circumstances and realities.

For global financiers, impact trumps pledges

Progress on loss and damage funding at COP28 is an important step forward. Yet it also reminds us that the wider scale of transitioning the entire global economy in line with climate goals will require massive capital investment — estimated at roughly $200 trillion to $275 trillion by 2050.

To hit that goal, the private sector must play a bigger role. And while green finance has already gained significant momentum, increasing 100-fold in the past decade, uncertainty still exists around the implementation of “transition finance” to decarbonize high-emitting and/or hard-to-abate sectors. Adapting today’s financial market practices to better accommodate the needs of transition finance can help unlock the flow of climate capital. RMI Managing Director Brian O’Hanlon sees these priorities:

Bridging the public-private financing gap. To deliver full-scale deployment of commercially proven clean energy technologies in Africa and throughout emerging markets, lenders and projects need to move beyond grant-funded demonstration projects, and de-risk portfolios of investments to better meet international financing requirements. These steps can help mobilize international private capital at scale, while ensuring that local project developers do the real work on the ground. With a project pipeline of $464 million in the Pacific, the Climate Finance Access Network (CFAN) offers a practical and actionable solution to developing countries facing capacity constraints in accessing climate finance.

Carbon on balance sheets may go up before they can go down. A key challenge of transition finance includes the risk of financial institutions divesting from high-emitting sectors on paper, but without delivering real reductions. This can happen when financial institutions sell their emitting assets, and can thus show decarbonization progress on their balance sheets. Yet the underlying assets and their related emissions haven’t changed however, only their owner has.

There are ways to overcome these barriers. At COP28, RMI created consensus on how to do so. For investors who have pledged to decarbonize their portfolios, more reliable ways to classify and track underlying emissions reductions is growing as initiatives such as the methane rules and agreements (see above) get traction. Investors need rules of engagement to clarify when financing methane abatement in fossil fuel progress results in overall emissions reductions or simply prolongs the life of emitting assets in ways that are incompatible with preventing disastrous temperature rise.

Climate impact from financial decisions. Shifting from past measures to future forecasts. Historically, investors and lenders have primarily looked at past emissions to assess progress toward climate goals — this method is essentially a look in the rear-view mirror. Now, regulators and climate experts are increasingly demanding forward-looking metrics that offer a more accurate assessment of future results by better modeling how financial decisions made today will affect the future trajectories of decarbonization and resilience of local economies. To support this shift, RMI leads the development of PACTA, a software application that predicts the climate impact of entire financial portfolios of investment and activities, often spanning multiple sectors and geographies.

Challenges ahead

As the world digests the implications of COP28’s agreements — and omissions — priorities for COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, are already becoming clear. Three are on our radar:

Renewables and the grid. The world has given itself just seven years to hit the ambitious goals of tripling renewable energy (3xRE) and doubling efficiency gains. This will require a steep ramp up in deployment in both developed and developing markets — including streamlined financing, quicker regulatory approvals, streamlining supply chains, and more rapid grid growth. Over the past decade, the average wait time to connect clean energy projects to the US grid has doubled to four years; in Europe and the United States delays to approve, build, and connect new clean energy projects can stack up to 10 years of more. Unlocking ways to upgrade and improve access to the grid are emerging as some of the toughest barriers to increasing renewables’ market share.

Carbon markets. In Dubai, negotiations around carbon markets (Article 6) collapsed and will need to be rebooted next year. Carbon markets remain a potentially powerful market solution to reduce emissions, yet voluntary markets faced multiple setbacks in 2023. RMI is working on multiple fronts to help mature these markets.

Finance. The New Collective Quantified Goal will take over from the rich world’s long-unfilled commitment to relay $100 billion per year to developing regions. This funding is growing in importance as renewables growth shifts into the Global South. Much of the world’s renewables growth (above) will be centered in the developing world, where most of the world’s economic growth, urbanization, and construction will unfold in coming decades. Many need help both building new clean energy systems, as well as aid in unwinding legacy fossil-fuel-based energy infrastructure. Projects in poorer countries remain more expensive and harder to finance and build, compared to richer regions, given higher risk premiums. Closing this gulf will help unleash faster renewables growth.

Could a ‘carbon coin’ solve the climate crisis? | GreenBiz

Dealing with climate change can seem impossibly costly. By all accounts, the toll will be many trillions of dollars annually for many years to come.

So far, efforts have been patchy and painful. Washington is momentarily engaged in a high-wire act to fund a multitrillion-dollar, climate-focused package that could make or break Uncle Sam’s decarbonization effort.

Even more modest sums are tough. To date, rich-world pledges to subsidize poor countries’ climate costs  — to the tune of just $100 billion per year — remain unmet after a decade. Far tougher challenges and much higher costs lay ahead, so the prospects look grim.

What if there was a way we could fund the climate transition by creating a new global currency, off the books of national and corporate accounts?

The currency could be used to reward each ton of carbon abated, whether via cleaner energy, cleaner business or direct carbon removal and sequestration. Such a regime could not only turbocharge public and private climate investment. It could also pay to protect ecosystems, which today struggle to find funding. This regime would also be politically transformative. Corporate boards and policy makers could shift from fighting over funding to planning action.

What if there was a way to fund the climate transition by creating a new global currency, off the books of national and corporate accounts?

From today’s system based mostly on sticks — taxes and rules — a reward would incentivize decarbonization (carrots). Just like people, global economic systems change faster with a mix of carrots and sticks.

If any of this is sounding familiar, a similar system plays a central role in Kim Stanley Robinson’s latest work of climate fiction, The Ministry for the Future, a novel tipped as a top read by Barack Obama and Ezra Klein, among others.

In the story, as the climate crisis worsens, the world’s top central banks go from cautious recalcitrance to urgent collaboration to create a global “carbon coin” to fund decarbonization. Robinson name checks the inspiration for this financial solution as “the Chen paper.”

Carbon rewards

Turns out, Delton Chen is a real person, who co-authored the real academic paper that inspired Robinson and that informs an increasingly ambitious vision to overhaul the world’s economy: the Global Carbon Reward.

Chen’s academic roots start in Australia with a Ph.D. in engineering. Around 2013, he shifted his focus to explore the barriers to addressing climate change. Clear as the science seemed, economics emerged as the key problem. Something was not working.

At a high level, he describes the global economy as an incomplete system, missing a key price — for risk — that could help resolve the climate problem. Activists like Greta Thunberg, says Chen, argue that we already have all the facts and solutions to solve the climate crisis: “I’m saying that’s not true. We don’t have all the answers because the funda­mental economics of carbon pricing appear to be incomplete.”

To fill this gap, Chen proposes a new digital global currency, created by central banks to fund a wave of global monetary policy that he calls Carbon Quantitative Easing, or CQE. That new currency is used to pay out Global Carbon Rewards, a flow of incentive payments to permanently fund the mitigation of greenhouse gases.

Chen’s theory is complex, and much of it exceeds my financial fluency — for deeper details, see links at the end of this note. That said, its high-level features are accessible and link to real world developments.

They include:

Carbon currency. One wouldn’t use Chen’s carbon coin day to day to buy groceries or gas. Rather, each virtual coin is “struck” based on the value of one metric ton of CO2 equivalent mitigated for a century. Central banks will manage the rate of conversion — into dollars, Euros, renminbi, etc. — to appreciate annually.

Because its value rises, the coin creates a reliable price signal to help companies finance costly transition plans — such as the shift from oil to green hydrogen — that are hard to finance today absent a known future value of carbon removal.

Governance and knowledge base. This system would require the transformation of existing institutions and the development of new ones too. Longer term decisions about setting the target value of the coin would be set by an authority, guided by a cost abatement curve for the planet. As the value of the coin goes up, year after year, markets would have a rising incentive to tackle increasingly gnarly decarbonization challenges.

To manage the award of coins, this system would include a registry of registries, tracking worldwide claims on carbon abatement to avoid double counting and related abuses. Such a library of methods and successes promises other benefits, too: a global, open-source repository of best practices to accelerate mitigation.

Social benefits. Today’s carbon frameworks fail profoundly to price in harder-to-quantify damage to people, culture, and ecosystems — from the extinction of a species to the desertification of rain forest. As part of the coin’s governance system, stakeholders — from indigenous peoples to environmentalists — would have input into the valuation of reward allotments.

Precursors

As Chen’s plans gain attention, real-world financial trends that are moving in a similar direction:

Central banking. Chen’s CQE stems in part from the emergence of quantitative easing (QE) around 2008. In response to the mortgage-backed securities crisis, the Federal Reserve deployed a then new approach, which — at the risk of oversimplification — let central banks issue new debt with one hand while buying it back with the other, thereby creating new assets, and keeping credit flowing into an economy at risk of freezing up.

Skeptics howled the tactic would unleash a tsunami of inflation. They were wrong. And since then, QE has become a favorite of the world’s central banks. To date, they have funneled over $25 trillion in QE funds into the global economy, including some $9 trillion in response to COVID-19 economic disruptions, per an Atlantic Council tracker.

At a few trillion dollars per year, the river of money already created through QE is in the ballpark of the anticipated price tag for climate adjustment. And as central banks adopt the technique, they are beginning to harmonize efforts.

Chartered to maintain financial stability, sometimes measured by unemployment and inflation, central bankers are beginning to regard climate in the same frame, Chen contends. From implicitly defending housing lenders in 2008, it’s not a far leap to imagine bankers recognizing climate collapse as a fundamental systemic risk.

There are early signs of such a shift. The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), launched in 2017, is a group of 80-plus central banks and supervisors, including the Federal Reserve. Besides advancing finance sector practices around climate risk management, NGFS members are working “to mobilize mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy.”

Verification. The elements necessary to validate a global carbon currency are also coming together. Such a regime would require a platform of trusted technologies to assess and track carbon remotely in order to allocate payments.

Verification technologies are multiplying quickly. Startups such as NCX today use satellite imaging and AI processing to better monetize forestry carbon credits. A new generation of satellites able to remotely assess methane emissions is already outing previously unidentified mega-sources of GHGs. And these same systems can likewise pinpoint the growth of CO2-sequestering greenery.

Precedents for a coordinated global currency action exist.

Meanwhile, the technical and regulatory infrastructure of carbon offset tracking — however imperfect — is improving. In North America alone, a half dozen or more have emerged, including the Alberta Emission Offset System Registry and the California Air Resources Board.

Precedents for a coordinated global currency action exist, points out Frank Van Gansbeke, professor of the practice at Middlebury College, where he focuses on finance and capital markets. Though he developed his work independently from Chen’s, the two now regularly review and discuss developments.

Where Chen approaches the financial problem as a science-based outsider, Van Gansbeke comes to it as an former investment banker, focused more on working with existing financial institutions. He considers the planet’s finite carbon reserve the ultimate monetary policy target, from which all other debt instruments should be priced.

Van Gansbeke points to Special Drawing Rights as a possible precursor. Created in 1969 by the International Monetary Fund, as a kind of meta-currency, the IMF uses SDRs today to support national economies suffering balance of trade or other economic crises.

Used together with other reserves on the IMF balance sheet, SDRs could be used as collateral to create a climate coin. Designed as an anchor currency, the IMF unit would be a “stablecoin”: a blockchain-supported currency backed by a share of real assets in land and forestry, new climate technology ventures and the top 150 ESG compliant companies.

With a modified remit, says Van Gansbeke, the IMF has the operational capacity and expertise to take such a step. For their third-party verified GHG reductions, emerging market countries would receive a settlement in IMF climate coins.

The proceeds could then be used either as collateral, as means to repay debt or as a tool to undertake debt restructurings or foreign exchange intervention. The IMF climate coin would not only impart strong pricing signals across all market segments, but also facilitate capital allocation in a carbon adjusted manner.

For more Van Ganspeke’s plan, check out his detailed post at Forbes.com,

What next?

Could a carbon currency make the leap from science fiction to reality? When Chen’s seminal paper was published a few years ago, it might’ve been easy to wave it away as deeply researched wishful thinking.

But in the years since, much has changed: climate urgency is rising and the financial zeitgeist is shifting, as economists and financiers ponder the once-imponderable, such as minting a trillion-dollar coin.

Rewriting the rules of the global economy to manage a risky transition isn’t all that rare, either. In the 20th century, it happened twice: once, with the 44-nation agreement at Bretton Woods to reboot the world’s economies after World War II; and again, in the 1970s, with a shift away from the gold standard. Today, the rise of digital currencies and growing risks of climate change are so disruptive that another transformative moment seems likely.

Both Chen and Van Gansbeke are moving forward with implementation plans:

  • At the upcoming COP26 in Glasgow, Van Gansbeke and a team of finance experts will announce the Rethinking Bretton Woods initiative, in which a climate coin will be a track.
  • For his part, Chen is focusing on testing. His nonprofit is seeking sponsorship and grants to create a proof-of-concept demonstration in California. The demo will include a few other countries and will last a few years to showcase a variety of technological innovations. Central banks are not essential to this trial, says Chen, because their monetary role will be simulated.

In the realm of carbon currency, reality is beginning to overtake the hypothetical, as Kim Stanley Robinson put it in an interview with Bill McKibben:

It's one of several things that’s happened since my novel came out that made me realize that in some ways, I was behind the curve in Ministry for the Future.... I found it very encouraging because we need these things. And there’s a general tendency over social media to doom and despair. We cannot get into doom. We have to actually look at all of the good work that's already being done.

For more on Chen’s work, start with the news page at his GCR site. To hear him explain the program in de-tail, check out episode 57 of the Carbotnic podcast before diving deeper into Chen’s writings

Originally published at GreenBiz.com https://www.greenbiz.com/article/could-carbon-coin-solve-climate-crisis

Hydrogen’s new moment | CPP Investments

A white paper on behalf of Thinking Ahead, a thought leadership platform at CPP Investments, a Canadian pension fund.

Challenge: Survey hydrogen’s enormous potential role in the energy transition across multiple sectors for an audience of non-energy experts.

Solution: A short white paper overviewing fast developing news in the hydrogen space, offset by classic data visualizations: call outs, tables and explainers for emphasis.

My roles: research, writing, data composition, chart design/recommendation, writing, copy editing, design/visual editing.

View the full report at CPP Investments or download here:

As crises collide, can California meet its climate goals? | GreenBiz

Climate. Heatwaves. Wildfires. Blackouts. Pandemic. Recession. Unemployment. Social unrest. Climate, again. 

The tangle of troubles California is struggling with has no precedent. Against a backdrop of rising environmental anxiety, with wildfires lasting longer, spreading further and damaging more acreage and communities than ever before, the pandemic triggered a sharp recession and spike in unemployment. With COVID-19 and joblessness hitting low-income and minority communities especially hard, police killings sparked months of protests against systemic racism and economic inequity. And just as the need for public safety-net programs couldn’t be higher, California faces a crippling collapse in tax revenue. 

For Mary Nichols, chair of the California Air Resources Board — the state’s key architect of climate and environmental policy — these near-term problems may be worse than we’ve seen, but they are not new, and the fix will come from commitment:

We’ve been shouting it from the rooftops for a long time that we were headed in this direction, although we hoped we wouldn’t get here quite so quickly, or quite so drastically. I have seen that people can think their way out of amazingly difficult traps if they decide to. We have the human capital and intelligence, if we have the will… You can’t fix one thing without the other. If we don’t come up with solutions that are multi-factored, we won’t get very far. 

To explore how California can solve these interlinked problems, Nichols was joined by Southern California Edison’s Carla Peterman in a dialogue moderated by Sarah Golden, GreenBiz’s senior energy analyst, during a breakout session at last week’s VERGE 20 conference. 

Nichols, a veteran of state and federal environmental and energy policy since the 1970s, is retiring from CARB soon and is a contender for a top environmental role in a Biden administration, as GreenBiz Senior Writer Katie Fehrenbacher recently reported.

As senior vice president of strategies and regulatory affairs at Southern California Edison (SCE), Peterman manages a business that serves more than 15 million Californians and more than 280,000 businesses across 15 counties, including much of Los Angeles and a swath of the state that stretches to the Nevada border. 

Double duty

For Peterman, who also served as a commissioner at the California Public Utilities Commission, which regulates the state’s electricity, water and natural gas services, the economic crisis has exacerbated troubles stemming from the wildfires. Utilities have been pushed not just to stabilize a damaged grid but also to maintain energy services to some customers who are suddenly less able to pay. As Peterman said:

To give you an example of how these things all collide, we’re seeing the impact of climate change from severe heat on grid reliability. Dealing with these issues is complicated by the pandemic. It’s more difficult to help people in emergency situations. We’ve seen an increase in electricity usage during COVID of 8 percent because people are at home. We also saw an increase in use during the heatwave a couple of months ago. And we’ve seen an increase in need for our customer assistance programs of 18 percent. Utilities have stopped disconnecting anyone who’s not able to pay. It’s so important to be in a state that has those safety nets for individuals. 

Funding the recovery will be a challenge. “The pandemic has had an impact on our ability to roll out any kind of new programs until we can get the state budget back in shape,” Nichols said. Yet much of the investment necessary to transition California away from fossil fuels can do double duty, helping hard-hit communities restore jobs while also improving energy services. 

SCE is seeing wildfire mitigation and grid investment as opportunities to invest in local businesses, and to cultivate more diverse partners, including a scholarship program to bring more Blacks into the skilled energy workforce, Peterman said. 

The shift to electric vehicles (EVs), accelerated by a recent state order curtailing sales of fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035, creates a need for investment that can rebuild and upgrade the grid in underserved communities, Peterman explained: 

We believe that a significant amount of electrification ultimately is the lowest-cost way to reach California’s climate targets. But it’s important to make sure that everyone can access all of those EVs, having access to renewable energy and building electrification. It can oftentimes be those in disadvantaged communities who don’t make that transition as quickly and then end up paying more. Ultimately, we want to make sure electricity stays affordable because we want people to use it more. 

Towards this goal, SCE recently got the OK to launch a $436 million buildout of EV charging infrastructure, the most ambitious of any U.S. utility, Peterman said. The plan calls for half of chargers to be installed in disadvantaged communities. It’s our job to set the bar high and to show the fortitude.

If all goes to plan, SCE will be able to both improve electrical service to those communities while also improving its business. This kind of synergy — with private companies innovating pragmatic strategies that help advance climate policy and benefit the public — are crucial to recovering and moving towards net-zero emissions. And the scale of the crisis demands more collaboration, faster. But not all businesses are there yet, Nichols said: 

What I see as a major impediment is the lack of willingness on the part of at least some of our business ecosystem to come to the table with their most constructive contribution. I am going to call out — because I think I have to — the debate over what we mean by zero, whether we’re going to zero or “near zero.” It boils down to: Are we going to continue to subsidize somewhat cleaner technologies versus setting our sights out on the ultimate goal and doing everything we can to get there? 

Promising precedents

By this measure, California’s track record of pioneering climate technologies offers promising precedents. From solar panel materials to EVs and grid management software, homegrown technologies are rapidly remaking California’s energy, transportation and economic systems. Yet in the next phase of recovery and decarbonization, affordability and accessibility will be a higher priority. Peterman is hopeful that innovation can help drive down costs. She said: 

I’m starting to geek out thinking about things like sensors and technologies that help to reduce latency. How do we allow devices to communicate with each other? And how do we really bring customers’ distributed resources forward to support grid resiliency? … With technology advancements and the need for affordability, it’s important to keep pushing the envelope. That’s my shout-out to all the techie people out there: We still need your ingenuity! 

From a policy perspective, Nichols is adamant the state will continue to lead. “It’s our job to set the bar high and to show the fortitude that says we’re going to stick with these goals even if somebody gets a little bent out of shape along the way, and we have to figure out how to accommodate them,” Nichols said. “Maybe we need to be flexible about the means for getting there. But we got to be willing to say, ‘We know we can get there.’ We’ve got to set that goal.”

After all, the Golden State is already home to the largest cap-and-trade program in the United States. More recently, Sacramento has unveiled ambitious goals to be carbon-neutral by 2045, to shift the grid and its nation’s largest fleet of cars to be zero-emission by 2035. Along the way, the state has emerged as a hothouse of climate-focused businesses, from innovative manufacturers such as Tesla to renewable energy giants such as Sunrun to efficiency standard-setters such as Google.  

No state can match California’s challenges, or the scale of its possibilities, in untangling this knot of problems. “But if anyone can do it, it’s California,” GreenBiz’s Golden said. 

Originally published at Greenbiz.com.

Jeffrey Sachs’s bright vision at Climate Week | Global CCS Institute

In this post, Adam Aston takes a look at some of the singular messages contained withing Professor Jeffrey Sachs’ important address at Climate Week in New York. Below Adam’s analysis is a lightly edited transcript of Professor Sachs’ address.

I write and read about the climate every day. Yet, even after years of tracking the complex cast of climate issues, every now and then my perspective is dramatically re-booted by what I think of as a ‘cathartic climate message’. It happens when a remarkable mind can yank your mind’s eye back up to the highest level of concern for the planetary risk posed by carbon pollution. For many people—myself included—An Inconvenient Truth did just this, synthesizing vast frontiers of information into a single, lucid, alarming message that sparked a fundamental awakenings.

At Climate Week NYC a few weeks ago, Jeffrey Sachs did likewise, forcefully reminding an audience of 200 or so climate veterans of the scale of the risk ahead, and that both technical and political solution are at hand.

Nearly 20 years ago, The New York Times dubbed Sachs “probably the most important economist in the world”. Now based at Columbia University, Sachs earned this reputation by applying economic theory to real-world development problems with remarkable fervor. In so doing, he has married the often-at-odds worlds of quantitative academic economics with the vexing, on-the-ground challenges of humanitarian development.

In his world-view, poverty, hunger, disease, and environmental degradation are not merely painful dynamics happening far away, they are solvable problems with knowable causes and testable solutions. Accordingly, Sachs has not been shy to role up his sleeves, and apply dramatic economic medicine on a large scale, and not always successfully.

Sachs’ blend of pragmatism and penetrating intelligence has won him influence across the globe, from the U.N. to the White House. At Columbia, Sachs is the nodal center of much of the university’s work on international economics, public health and climate. He is head of the school’s Earth Institute, as well as the Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia’s School of Public Health.

Accordingly, Sachs has strong convictions about the failure of U.S. policy to deal with carbon pollution, and accelerate carbon capture and renewables. Though Sachs was speaking roughly a month before the recent U.S. presidential elections, he was highly critical of cap-and-trade policy proposals. Though palpably frustrated with federal climate policy, Sachs publicly supported President Obama and has lobbied the White House to impose a carbon tax.

Amidst post-election jockeying to overhaul the U.S. tax code, Sachs’s take on carbon taxes looks prescient. Immediately following the election, conservative Washington think tanks have been exploring the impacts of a carbon tax with unprecedented seriousness. As Keith Johnson observes in The Wall Street Journal:

Today [Nov. 13] the conservative American Enterprise Institute is holding an all-day, on-the-record discussion of the idea [of a carbon tax]. And the Brookings Institution is unveiling a slate of new measures meant to make the government more effective, including a carbon tax that could raise $1.5 trillion over ten years. All that follows a cascade of carbon-tax advocacy in recent days from the chattering classes and a slate of academic work over the summer…

Sachs is confident a carbon tax could be deployed—and, importantly, sold to the public—by back-loading the tax so that it scales gradually. By using revenues to subsidize renewables and by giving investors a clear signal about future carbon costs, Sachs argues a tax will be more effective than cap-and-trade at steering investment towards low carbon technologies such as CCS.

Sachs spoke for an hour, without notes, reeling off reams of detailed economic and climate data from memory. However sharp his views, they offer an invaluable reference for why work on low-carbon technologies must continue, and quite possibly useful advice to help shape a future carbon policy. After his speech, he was interviewed by Climate Week, the video of which is below.

Following, find a lightly-abridged transcript of Sachs’s presentation to Climate Week.

Climate change is here, now

Thank you.

I’m pleased to be here and to know this group is grappling with these complicated topics. There are no known answers to this problem yet, so I could just sit down. [laughter]

Climate change is certainly the most complicated challenge that humanity has ever had to take on because the problems go to the core of our economic system. Energy is the most important sector of the modern economy.

And yet we have grown up for 200 years on a fossil fuel-based economy. So far, that has been a great thing for the world. Except now, it could ruin the world. We don’t have a clear pathway out of this and unfortunately time is short.  We have already filled the atmosphere with greenhouse gases to a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.

In other words, the urgency of climate change is not as we first spoke about it 20 years ago, as a threat to our children and our children’s children. Rather, it is here now. We’ve entered what the geologists call the Age of the Anthropocene, meaning the period in Earth’s history when a single species—homo sapiens—has major Earth dynamics under our strong, and not so beneficial, influence.

Greenhouse gas emissions have already risen to a level that, in past history of the world, coincided with ocean levels many meters higher than they are now. This shows that we’ve already reached a level of human-induced change that, if it now unfolds over decades or perhaps centuries with all of the feedbacks included, we’ve already fundamentally changed the planet.

We’ve already emitted enough carbon dioxide to reduce the pH of the ocean by 0.1 units and we’re on a path to reduce the pH by about 0.4 units perhaps by mid-century. This could destroy a tremendous amount of the marine life around carbonate-needing species. Even aside from anticipated changes to the atmosphere, ocean acidification is coming from CO2 dissolving in the ocean surface and affecting the carbonate balance, the buffering function of the ocean. This dynamic, on its own, is enough to do tremendous harm.

Climate arithmetic

The point I want to make is that we’re already in the middle of dramatic change. We have not yet succeeded mentally, we have not yet succeeded technologically, and we certainly have not yet succeeded politically in finding a way forward.

The arithmetic is not all that complicated. It’s the solutions that are complicated.

The arithmetic is that the world economy is now amounts to $70 trillion per year. That’s seven billion people, on average, producing $10,000 per person in common units of purchasing power. We use about 200 kilograms of oil-equivalent energy for each $1,000 of GNP globally. It’s not so different across all scales of poor to rich countries actually, because energy scales with the level of production more or less proportionately.

For each kilogram of oil-equivalent energy unit, we emit about 2.4 kilograms of CO2. That’s a measure of the carbon intensity of our energy.  If you multiply our energy use–the roughly 200 kilograms of oil-equivalent energy per $1,000 of output—by the roughly 2.4 kilograms of CO2 per kilogram of oil-equivalent energy, you see that we use about 0.46 kg of oil equivalent energy per dollar of GNP and emit about 460 kilograms of CO2 for every $1,000 of income.

Multiply that factor by global GDP, or $70 trillion, and that turns out to be about 33 billion tons of CO2 that we emit per year. Given the holding capacity of the atmosphere, that rate of emissions is raising the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by about 2.5 parts per million per year.

The result is fairly simple math. We went from about 280 parts per million in the pre-industrial era to about 395 parts per million now. We’re on a path of increasing that number by roughly 2.5 parts per million every year.

How dangerous, at what level?

Now, what level is dangerous? It depends who you ask.

I regard my colleague [at Columbia University], Jim Hansen, as the premier climate scientist in the United States. He has taken the most flak from climate skeptics and that’s a good indication that he’s the most important and the most accurate of all the climate scientists. Twenty-four years ago Hansen told the U.S. Congress for the first time what our planet would be like if we went on with business as usual for another quarter century. It’s a quarter century later now, and it’s clear, he nailed this prediction almost to a decimal point.

Ask Hansen what is a dangerous level CO2 accumulation, and he’ll tell you that we passed the safe level by about 45 parts per million. He puts the threshold back at about 350 parts per million. Every time in Earth’s history when we’ve been above that threshold, ocean levels have been several meters higher.

So why aren’t they higher now? They’re haven’t risen yet because there are feedbacks that take time. For example, given the CO2 that we’ve emitted so far, the Earth’s temperature has warmed by about 0.8°C from the recent historical average. If we allow even the relatively short feedbacks to accumulate further to what we’ve already done—not adding any additional CO2, just including emissions to date—we’re going to have about twice that amount in warming.

In other words, we’ve already built in planetary warming of about 1.6°C, but we’ve observed only about half of that so far because the ocean takes time to warm up. It’s a big bathtub. It has a tremendous heat capacity. It’s warming, but it takes time.

That only accounts for changes to date, however. As Hansen points out, we need to factor in longer-term feedbacks: the loss of polar ice, changing the albedo of the Earth’s surface; the possible degassing of CO2 from deep oceans; methane release from permafrost; and others. These happen in highly non-linear ways.

Taking into account these effects as well, and we’re talking about a massive change of the planet, a massive change of sea level, a massive change of ocean chemistry, and a massive loss of species diversity.

Denial has real costs

We tell ourselves, “It’s okay. We have time. Maybe we’ll get to 450. That’s okay. What’s a couple degrees Centigrade among friends?”

In this country, we have our leading business newspaper, The Wall Street Journal, propounding these sorts of myths every day in its editorials, with a directly antiscientific propaganda. At the same time, it’s a wonderful newspaper—it’s got great news stories. But its opinion pages are extremely damaging because we’re already into the midst of massive climate disruption.

For example, this year, we had our 12 warmest months in U.S. history, spanning from July 2011 through to July 2012. In fact, July 2012 has turned out to be the single warmest month recorded in U.S. history.

We’ve had the worst drought in modern history, which has done great damage to the corn crop. Food prices are soaring.

We’ve had a presidential campaign where this issue has barely been mentioned—perhaps in one speech, in one paragraph. We have willful neglect because of the power of the lobbies. Politicians’ main job is to raise money to run advertisements and that costs a lot of money and the oil companies have a lot of money.

So here we are in the middle of this disaster and we can’t even talk about it. Now if we could talk about it we’d find out, “God, this is harsh. What are we going to do?”

The fact of the matter is that this is not in U.S. hands, even though the U.S. remains the largest economy, at least for a few more years. China may overtake the United States by 2017 or 2018 in total purchasing power.

In total carbon emissions, China has already overtaken the United States. China is by far the largest emitter and its emissions will continue to rise dramatically because—even with all of the innovative, renewable energy coming on line there, as well as all of the nuclear plants it is building—China is also increasing massively its use of coal. China is a coal-rich country, and what it can’t get domestically it’s importing from Australia.

The developing countries as a whole are now in the driver’s seat of the world climate in the future. They ask:

Why should we do anything? The most powerful country in the world—the United States, the richest country, the one with the highest per capita emissions of any major economy—won’t do anything. Why should we do anything? We need to catch up. We’re still poor. We’re still only one-fifth the per capita income of the United States. Why look to us? We just happen to have a lot of people.

They have a point. Except that this kind of relentless prisoner’s dilemma logic—“You first. No, you first. Thank you, no. I’ll do it after you”—is going to wreck the planet.

Destabilizing Africa

Before I turn to a couple of the possible solutions, I should say that the impacts are not just things like the heat wave in Europe, which took many lives, or the crop failures here in the U.S. this year.

There is also devastation occurring in drier, poorer parts of the world, especially in the horn of Africa and the Sahel [a region spanning the northern third of the African continent, where desert transitions into savannah].

Nobody knows for sure but the evidence seems to be that the warming of the Indian Ocean has pulled the rainfall off the coast of East Africa into the Indian Ocean. It’s led to a significant drying of what is already one of the driest places in the world: Ethiopia, Somalia, northern Uganda, northern Kenya and that area.

There have been horrendous droughts in recent years. That’s contributed to lots of violence, lots of extremism, and Al Qaeda. Then the drone missiles fly and we’re into a kind of a mind-boggling spiral of places in the world becoming almost uninhabitable. Instead of working on their resiliency, digging bore wells and helping with agriculture, instead we see war taking over.

In West Africa it’s a similar story, albeit with a different underlying mechanism. The Sahel has also faced a massive drought this year. We have already lost one country to collapse. Mali experienced tremendous violence in the form of coup in the south and an insurrection in the north.

If there’s a message from these cases, it’s this: Don’t be complacent. Don’t think we’re going to work it all out. Don’t expect that we’re going to learn, or that everything will be fine, or that we’ll get our act together.

Our capacity to wreck things is very high. The world’s economy keeps growing, there’s a lot of fossil fuel, and we’re very good at finding new ways to dig it up and burn it. We have the hydrofracking boom right now, as well as oil sands and oil shale. Anything we can find to burn, we will burn.

If we do that we will completely wreck the planet. And we’re already well advanced in doing that.

So that’s the problem. Now what’s the solution?

Low carbon technologies: CCS and renewables

The solution is we need alternatives. We have lots of candidates. We need to de-carbonize the global energy system.

By 2050, today’s world economy of $70 trillion should be maybe $200 trillion, if poor countries grow successfully. They will need a tremendous amount of energy. Even if we’re highly energy-efficient, the need for primary energy will grow tremendously.

To grow, we must turn to low-carbon energy. There are basically two ways to do that. One is to use primary energy sources that are not coal, oil, gas or things like it. That could be renewables, wind, solar, or geothermal. It could be nuclear.

The other alternative is to use those sorts of fossil fuels but to clean up after ourselves using carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS.

There are two logical chains of carbon capture and sequestration. One is to capture the CO2 as you burn it, at power plants, and sequester it safely geologically. The other, which one of my colleagues is working very hard to do, is to try to capture CO2 directly from the air. That’s more expensive because you have a diffuse source of CO2: it’s only 395 parts per million molecules in the atmosphere. If this can be done, it has an advantage because then you don’t need pipelines to transport it. Also, you can put the collectors in places best suited to geologically sequester it directly.

There is nothing wrong with fossil fuels. This is not a moral question, except for the CO2 issue. Using fossil fuels would be great—it’s gotten us a long way in the world, except it’s dangerous if we don’t clean up.

CCS is an extremely important potential technology for doing this. I think the overall logic of what to do is fairly clear. The overall logic is to clean up our power grid and convert our internal combustion to some form of electricity because cars can’t capture their own CO2 out of their exhaust. If we want to handle the roughly 25 percent of CO2 that’s emitted by our vehicles, the transport sector has to use a low-carbon power source. And that can be electrification.

The basic path of what we is this: We must move from a fossil fuel-emitting electric power sector and internal combustion-driven transportation sector to an electric power sector that is essentially carbon free and a transportation that is fuelled by carbon-free electric power sector.

Tipping the balance towards carbon free power

We’re not getting there right now because it requires extra resources to get there. You need to tip the balance to get moving in the right direction go by making market signals that us in that direction rather than in the current direction.

Right now, the market signals are pretty clear. If you want base-load electric power, burn coal. It’s cheap. It gives you reliable electricity at the lowest possible cost. Your industry will be competitive and our planet will end up destroying itself.

We need to put a signal that is much more powerful and at the same time, do a lot of research and development to figure out which of these pathways is viable and at what cost.

It’s not enough, by the way, to just put a price on carbon. We have to make societal decisions as well. For example, what do we think of nuclear power? Who is in favor? I am. Anybody else? Okay, a few people. Who’s against? All right.

The price of carbon will not decide this question. We’re going to need to vote, to debate it. We’re going to need to have a plan. There are valid arguments on both sides of this issue, but we’d better decide it and it’s not enough to have Cap and Trade to decide it. We actually need to have public decision-making and much more rational scrutiny of the options.

Other technologies pose tough decisions too. For instance, if we’re going to deploy renewables at scale, we need public right-of-ways for high-voltage transmission lines. We need to carry wind from the Dakotas to the populated centers.

We need to decide what we’re going to do with the Mojave Desert. How many solar panels are going to fill the desert and in which way? Yet not many people live in the Mojave. So you have to move energy to where it’s needed. That requires right-of-ways, land management, public decisions, ecosystem protection and so forth.

I’m in favor of these low-carbon options. But to be clear, all of them all require consensus and public investment.

U.S. policy paralysis

So what do people here [at this talk] think about the U.S. energy plan, the Obama plan? Have you read it?

It doesn’t exist. Obama’s rhetoric—“All of the above”—is not a plan. All of the above is to get past the election. There is no plan here.

It’s worse than my first year students by far, who easily can put together spreadsheets and give options and decide what to do. We have a Nobel Laureate Secretary of Energy in this country. Who has seen him recently?

Of course, he’s not been visible during the election because he might say something real. That could upset somebody and that could trigger advertisements by Super PACS.

So we have nothing. No plans energy, no policy documents, no long-term strategy, no honest speeches, no discussion at all. I have never seen anything like it. It’s almost a complete collapse of politics in this country. Or I should say it’s almost a complete collapse of policy in this country. There is no policy, by design. Policy is dangerous. Somebody might object. Somebody might not contribute to the campaign.

And so neither side says a word right now. But four years ago, this President wanted to do something. The one thing they tried to do—cap and trade—was the wrong thing. I want to emphasize this: Cap and trade is absolutely the wrong approach for this problem. Cap and trade puts a spot price on an issue that needs a 25-year price. These cap-and-trade systems were all proposed for one reason: because American politicians didn’t want to say the word “tax”.

An analogy has been made with the sulfur dioxide reductions of the 1990s, which used cap-and-trade. But that’s a completely different phenomenon from carbon emissions. Here’s why. Sulfur dioxide emissions are a flow pollutant. They don’t stay up in the air. In fact, they come down in the rain and cause acid rain. So if you put a current price on that pollution, you trigger a current decision to install smokestack scrubbers. You get the result that you want, which is reduction of sulfur oxides.

With CO2 though, you don’t want to define today’s level of CO2 emissions. What we really care about is emissions 20 years from now. What will our power system look like? Will we have made a fundamental transformation?

It actually doesn’t matter so much what we emit today because that’s already baked into our infrastructure: our energy systems, our buildings, our power plants, our cars. The question is, what are we going to have 20 years from now? And today’s price doesn’t determine that. The price 20 years from now does, along with the regulatory environment in effect then.

We need a different strategy. This is why Australia’s done the right thing to put a carbon tax, although they err by planning to convert it to a cap-and-trade system by 2015. Cap and trade does not make deeper, future choices evident. It’s not promoting the long-term technological changes that are needed.

Real costs, but ‘not worth wrecking the planet for’

As I said, climate change is just about the most complicated thing imaginable. Yet I should stress clearly, that if we really went to all the next-best energy alternatives—even using today’s technologies—we could probably de-carbonize the energy system substantially at a cost of maybe 2 percent of our GNP.

That’s a big cost. In the United States we’re a $15 trillion economy and so 2 percent is $300 billion a year of outlays. People would raise their eyebrows at that. But for a $15 trillion economy, that’s not such a big deal. It’s not worth wrecking the planet for.

The issue is complicated because it requires decisions. It requires collective action. It requires pathways. It requires a change of how we do things. It requires taking on vested interests. It requires new technologies.

That’s what makes it complicated, not that it’s going to break the world economy, or that it’s going to be the end of prosperity or anything like that. The only thing that could end prosperity is business as usual.

If we started the changeover now, at full-speed, with technologies we have right now, we could do it. The truth is we’d barely notice, although shareholders of some companies would take pretty heavy losses, a lot of Congressmen would be voted out of office. It might be quite interesting actually. But it would not break our economy or our society.

So there is fundamentally good news, which is that we have a lot of ways to proceed. We have a lot of solutions on the drawing board. Even though we will bear a cost to do this, we will still come out a happier, healthier, more robust society in the end, not only for having avoided the worst, but actually for having introduced more efficient, superior technologies.

We talked about green buildings and energy efficiency. I would add that electric vehicles add a startlingly exciting horizon for us in new forms of transport that are going to be much higher quality. Indeed, that newspaper that I like so much, The Wall Street Journal—except for its miserable op-ed section—had a wonderful insert today about the inevitability of self-driving vehicles.

As my engineering colleague says, it’s dangerous to text and to drive at that same time, so stop driving. That’s what the technology is going to allow us to do. And because it’s electric you can do wonderful things that you can’t do with mechanical transmission and internal combustion engines.

This is not the end of prosperity. This is actually an exciting avenue ahead but we’re going to have to take some decisions. We haven’t been able to take them yet. As I look around, my thought is that maybe Washington will be the last place to act on the planet, I’m sad to say.

Even within the United States, many places are moving ahead. They’re not waiting for China. They’re not waiting for Washington. They want to have a clean and responsible energy system even if it’s more costly for them right now. They know that ultimately the world’s going to have to move in that direction, and better to be an early mover than a late mover. I find all over the world that there are early movers who are ready to step up now.

Maybe we’ll feel better when we pay less attention to U.N. climate negotiations, of which I’m a part, where we wait for total unanimity, which never comes. Rather maybe we’ll feel better when we start championing those who will move ahead first. We should draw attention to them, give them support, and change the question to one of “Who can get there fastest?” In the end, those are going to be the ones that are going to benefit most.

Thanks very much. I’ll take questions now.

Can natural gas be a bridge to a lower carbon system?

With the right rules, yes. But we don’t have those rules in place today.

If there were a framework of a gradually rising prices on carbon emissions that started low today but rose predictably to a tens of dollars per ton of CO2 by 2025, that would be meaningful.

In this case, if decision-makers today were building power plants and thinking about the future—of the grid, of transport systems and the like, and could see ahead 20 years to know the impact of carbon costs on their decisions—then I think natural gas could well be used as a short-run substitute to replace coal and it could become a stepping stone.

Without that kind of plan, natural gas will become another entrenched, carbon-emitting infrastructure, protected by yet more vested interests. What we’ll probably do is build more dedicated pipelines and more dedicated infrastructure so that it becomes even harder to get off of the natural gas habit down the road.

As natural gas grows more profitable, it becomes bigger, and more entrenched. This is a very basic point: things that can be both profitable and very bad for us. This is because the profit is based on market prices. It’s not based on true social costs. When you have something like climate change, the environmental harm is an externality, and the market price is a miserable signal for what should be done.

Those who remain zealously committed to “market prices” do so denial of basic science. At this point, it is sheer willful propaganda that drives the skeptics. It’s not about scientific doubts. It’s not about what we’re observing, nor what we’re measuring, nor what our satellite systems are telling us, nor what energy balance data are showing us, nor what’s happening to ice sheets, nor what’s happening all over the world. This is willful denial because it’s profitable right now to deny it.

It’s really the height of irresponsibility given the moral implications for future generations. I don’t know whether they think their children are going to be in a different climate zone? A different Earth? Whether they think that climate change stops at the gates of their community? Whether it only affects poor people?

I don’t know what they’re thinking, but at this point it’s so bizarre, it’s beyond any normal behavior. It’s driven by a lot of money.

How will utilities evolve?

The utilities are not really the main agents of resistance actually. The utilities are regulated. They have a pretty straightforward mandated responsibility. If pricing were to change, they would change along with it. They’d be happy to run different kinds of power plants and many utilities are not resistant to these changes.

In fact some utilities have been part of the corporate coalitions on the side of pressing for a clear framework to reduce the carbon intensity. For many years a lot of utilities like Duke have said, “Give us the right price [including carbon]. We’ll make a different decision.” They’ve been very, very clear.

I don’t regard utilities as the main agents. They buy fuel so that they transform it, they’re not really playing the same role that the Koch brothers play or that the oil sector in general plays or the coal industry, which is really the powerful resistance in the country.

How can leaders better sell smarter climate and energy policy?

There are three things that can make proper energy and climate policy more palatable and they have not been done. One is the good, solid, economic logic to backload the carbon tax. Let it build up over time. There are rigorous economic reasons to do that, and it’s also politically correct.

Phase this in. This is not about today’s emissions. This is about the kind of energy system we will have in 2025 and especially the kind we will have in 2040. We have to make a technological transition that’s quite deep: to new energy systems, to new transport systems, to more efficient buildings.

A simple calculation shows the logic of what I think is the right political strategy also. You could promise today significant reductions in tariffs to give an incentive for the transition, and totally pay for those reductions with a back loaded carbon tax.

That would work because the current base of the clean technologies you aim to subsidize is tiny. As you increase the size of the renewable sector, you need a higher tax to pay for it. You can decrease the subsidy over time, and raise the level of the tax in parallel. If you keep constant the gap between subsidies for renewables and tax revenues from carbon, you’re always saying to industry:

There is going to be a $30 or $40 or $50 per ton CO2 advantage to go to the de-carbonized source. We guarantee that for the next 30 years. Today it will come via a big feed-in tariff. In the future it’ll come by a tax, and it will gradually substitute along the way.

Second, very closely related: I’m happy to have the future pay for a lot of this. This can be bond-financed. It doesn’t have to be current-financed because the future can bear some of this. It’s not only the current generation that needs these changes, so you can use inter-temporal fiscal policy—not in an irresponsible way, but to show that the load will be paid also by those who are going to bear the benefits of the cleaner environment,

The third point that I find completely missing right now is an idea of a framework and a plan. I’ve been involved in public policy for 30 years and have contributed to large-scale transformation.

You can’t tell the public that our plan is cap-and-trade. That’s not a plan. That’s frightening. That just means, “Oh. Our electricity prices are going up. What do you mean? Why? What’s that for? That doesn’t sound good.”

You have to explain to the public, “Look. We’re going to have better vehicles, smarter buildings, a smart grid. We’re going to be able to tap into renewable energy. We’re going to be able to get off of our Middle East dependency, and here’s how, quantitatively.”

I urged the Administration to do that in 2009. I went to the White House on several occasions and I put in my two cents to say, “Have a framework. Have a plan. Waxman-Markey is not enough. You have to explain not just the policy tool. You have to explain what America’s going to look like in 20 years, how we can live better, cleaner, more independent, longer-term resources and a safer climate.”

That is missing until today. And that, to my mind, is the biggest weakness here. It’s not leveling with the public. But it’s also not explaining that this is an all-grid story. There’s a lot of exciting new technology, exciting things to do. This isn’t going to break the economy.

I think the public would rally to this. Yes, the public would. The vested interest would not. To win this game is to win the public.

~

Check out the original post online here:

http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/insights/authors/adamaston/2012/11/27/jeffrey-sachs%E2%80%99s-bright-vision-climate-week

Clean Energy Makes Big Strides, but Just How Sustainable is the Growth? | GreenBiz

Clean Energy Makes Big Strides, but Just How Sustainable is the Growth?

Global investment in clean energy capacity expanded by 5 percent in 2011 to $260 billion. The growth comes despite the considerable drag from economic crisis in Europe and weak growth in the U.S.

The new research, compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, was announced yesterday in New York at United Nations headquarters building, site of the Investor Summit on Climate Risk & Energy Solutions.

Up from $247 billion in 2010, last year’s rise in spending on clean energy capacity offered reasons for optimism along with rising cause for concern. Note that this data includes spending on renewable energy technologies, but not advanced coal, nuclear or conventional big hydro.

The good news: Spending has quintupled in the past seven years, with outlays for solar power leading the expansion — soaring by 36 percent to $137.5 billion during 2011.

And in the global horse race for green energy leadership, the U.S. regained its lead over China for the first time since 2008. U.S. spending hit a record, at $55.4 billion, up 35 percent, as investment in China rose by just one percent to $48.9 billion.

“The performance of solar is even more remarkable when you consider that the price of photovoltaic modules fell by close to 50 percent during 2011, and now stands 75 percent lower than three years ago, in mid-2008,” Michael Liebreich, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said in a statement.

But lurking behind those big numbers are worries that U.S.’ resurgence in 2011 may turn out to be the lunge that precedes a stumble. Spending in the U.S. was buoyed by a big surge of stimulus funds, originally set aside in the 2008 stimulus bill, that will taper off sharply in the year ahead.

“The U.S. jumped back into the lead in clean energy investment last year,” Liebreich added. “However before anyone in Washington celebrates too much, the U.S. figure was achieved thanks in large part to support initiatives which have now expired.”

As those incentives shrink, the global wind and solar industries are set to consolidate. Supply in both the wind and solar markets exceeds demand significantly, leading to bankruptcies and pullbacks. In the solar space, Solyndra is the most visible, but one of a growing number of startups that crashed under pressure from falling solar cell prices.

Dominated by mature conglomerates such as GE and Siemens, the outlook for wind is dimmer than for solar: Global investment fell by 17 percent to $74.9 billion. To try to compete with lower-cost Chinese manufacturers Vestas, the world’s largest producer of turbines, yesterday announced it was shuttering a factory, and cutting 2,335 jobs, or about 10 percent of its staff.

Of course, oversupply means lower-cost energy systems for buyers. And even as subsidies are declining in the wealthy West, non-financial policy support remains resilient. In the U.S., renewable portfolio standards in 29 U.S. states represent a $400 billion investment opportunity, as other states finalize similar commitments.

Meanwhile, stepped up subsidies in emerging markets — especially Brazil and India — are upgrading energy services to virgin markets. Spending in these areas will replace some of the investment that is retreating in North America and Europe, said Ethan Zindler, Head of Policy Analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Financial innovation remains a weak spot, however, especially in the U.S., where clever capital solutions could help fill the gap left by shrinking federal subsidies. Given the multi-billion dollar scale of many clean-energy investment projects, there’s been a dearth of the sorts of high-efficiency financial instruments that can bundle up batches of projects, and finance them at low cost in public markets, Zindler added.

There have been some promising precedents — such as PACE loans and solar lease-to-own programs. But nothing has yet emerged to substitute for large-scale, multi-billion federal subsidy programs. Proposals such as green bonds or a national infrastructure bank are stuck in the starting gate, said Zindler.

Institutional investors, meanwhile, are hungry for more diversified ways to put money into greener projects. “Investors need diversified, sustainable strategies that maximize risk-adjusted returns in a volatile investment environment,” said Ceres head Mindy Lubber, which directs the Investor Network on Climate Risk, a network of 100 institutional investors with collective assets totaling about $10 trillion.

The retreat of subsidies may enhance the competitiveness of products and strategies already honed to deliver higher efficiency and energy savings, said Marc Vachon, vice president of ecomagination at GE. He added that GE’s ecomagination product line is growing at twice the rate of the rest of the company, having already generated $85 billion in revenues to date.

The event saw the release of two other reports of note for folks following investment trends in green business and clean tech:

• Global investment consultant Mercer issued a new report showing how leading global investors, including the nation’s largest public pension fund, CalPERS, are integrating climate change considerations into investment risk management and asset allocations. The report, “Through the Looking Glass: How Investors are Applying Results of the Climate Change Scenarios Study” comes on the heels of a Mercer report last year showing that climate change could contribute as much as 10 percent to portfolio risk over the next 20 years.

• Deutsche Asset Management also released a new report, “2011: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly,” describing generally mixed results on climate investments and policy in 2011 but projecting long-term growth in cleaner energy markets to continue. Positive trends included China and Germany’s continued low-carbon leadership, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s issuance of new rules on hazardous air pollutants, Australia’s new carbon legislation, and Japan’s commitment to supporting the deployment of more renewable energy.

The report also highlights negative trends such as the weak performance of cleantech public equity stocks in 2011 and the expiration of several U.S. federal renewable energy incentive programs, including the “highly successful” Treasury Grant Program that expired Dec. 31, 2011. The report noted that the TGP program, in 2 1/2 years, leveraged nearly $23 billion in private sector investment for 22,000 projects in every state across a dozen clean energy industries.

Last but not least, a plug. If you, like me, have concluded that the “end of coal” is all but inevitable to prevent catastrophic climate change, check out this remarkable presentation — which ended with a standing ovation — by Richard Trumka, President of the AFL-CIO at yesterday’s summit.

Trumka, a former miner, spoke with passion about how the “end of coal” message is landing on the ground in blue-collar coal country, even as he acknowledged the dire need to address climate risks and build a low-carbon economy.

His message is cause to reflect on how labor’s interests are often misunderstood and under-represented in climate policy discussions. Where coal miners see their jobs, housing values, and culture imperiled, it’s no surprise that the politics of climate change become hard to swallow — no matter how chaotic the climate change signals may be. The same labor issues vex the proposed XL Pipeline, about which Trumka says labor remains divided, and natural gas fracking as well.

Read the transcript here or watch his talk below, starting just before the 14-minute mark. It’s well worth the 15-minute running time. If the embedded player isn’t working, point your browser here: http://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/webcast/2012/01/2012-investor-summit-on-climate-risk-and-energy-solutions-2.html:

Wind turbine photo CC-licensed by Samuel Stocker.

A recipe to jumpstart CCS in the US – the rewards of collaborating with China, 3 of 3 | Global CCS Institute

This is the third and final installment of a Q&A with John Thompson of the Clean Air Task Force. Previously we talked about Canada’s leadership in CCS and the problems posed by focusing on CCS liability in advance of scaling the technology. In this last part of the Q&A, Thompson outlines his vision of the benefits available to the American CCS agenda by collaborating with Chinese utilities and oil companies.

For context on how quickly China is emerging as a hothouse of CCS pilots, a recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimated that China is home to nearly one-third of active pilot-scale CCS projects globally, many of which are focused on carbon use. China, after all, coined the term carbon capture use and storage (CCUS), notes BNEF, adding that China offers US utilities a test bed with lower labor costs, lower regulatory hurdles, ultra-fast construction timelines, ample capital, and an appetite to learn from the West.

To spur EOR, how can we bring down carbon capture costs?

There’s where we think China comes in. China has very low‑cost capture technology, but they have no or little EOR experience. Texas and the Gulf states have lots of EOR experience, but to get more oil from their mature fields will require anthropogenic CO2. We see a huge opportunity to partner with China here, to bring lower‑cost Chinese CO2 capture technology to the US. A bigger supply of lower-cost CO2 will in turn help capture more of our oil. In turn, we can export EOR technology back to China.

CATF recently hired a new staff person in Texas to develop this vision, Dr. Frank Chou. He’s a 30-year veteran of various refining and chemical companies, most recently Shell. Our aim is to develop links between China and the Gulf states region as a way to promote carbon capture in both countries. China builds projects at twice the speed of the US, and at a fraction of cost. If we can harness these global synergies, we have the potential to really drive down costs globally.

How far has this collaboration gone?

We’ve already brought AEP into partnership with Huaneng, and linked Duke with Huaneng as well. I mentioned Southern Co’s Plant Radcliff earlier: the technology there is a TRIG gasifier, developed in Mobile, Ala., by KBR and Southern Co. That technology is being built in China first, in a small, 120‑megawatt power plant about two hours from Hong Kong. That operational data will help refine the design as Kemper is built.

How has China become a leader in low-cost carbon capture?

We’ve all heard that ‘China builds one coal plant a week’. That may or may not be quite true at the moment, but they’re building at an incredible rate (see chart below), and much of the capacity is at the cutting edge of coal technology. They’re building an advanced coal gasification plant about once a month, where the US has only a handful.

It’s no different than China’s experience with factory manufacturing: there are economies of scale taking place that lower the cost to build advanced coal plants. For example, there’s a plant called Shidonkou, outside of Shanghai. They’re capturing CO2 at about $30 a ton. That same project in the United States would probably be double or triple that cost.

And then there’s the potential appetite in China for EOR. We estimate they have the potential, easily, to build 30 gigawatts of CCS capacity to supply EOR in China. Yet right now, there’s maybe only one EOR project there. With more know-how from the US, there’s huge potential for that number to grow.

But why would China be better able to solve the problem of scaling up carbon capture than here?

The math suggests that China may be able to build CCS on power plants using EOR with little or no incentives. In China, they refer to EOR-CCS as ‘CCUS’ where the ‘U’ is for utilisation.

Keep in mind the value of CO2 for EOR purposes is set by the global price of oil. So whether you’re in Texas, Norway or Beijing, you’re basically paying the same global price for oil and that price establishes the same economic value of the CO2 used for EOR regardless of where you are doing it. On the other hand, capture costs do vary by region and country and in China they’re a fraction of the costs elsewhere.

So, if you buy CO2 for EOR at roughly the same price in China and Texas, but your China capture costs are a third or half what they are in Texas, you may be able to do EOR‑CCS in China on power plants without any extra economic incentives, without any need for a price on carbon.

That’s not true in Texas yet, given today’s cost of capture. To develop power plant CO2 sources, you’re either going to need some kind of incentive or deep reduction in the cost of capture technology.

But we can lower capture costs with China’s help. We can harness that global synergy to scale up 30 gigawatts worth of CCS for EOR in China in a matter of years. That scale of development lowers costs of capture technology globally. Building that much CCS first in the West would take decades. China is a really significant strategic opportunity that we’re trying to exploit.

So a lot of what we’re trying to do in China is break down the barriers between Chinese CO2 suppliers and Chinese oil companies, because the oil companies have the knowledge. They understand the geology but they don’t produce the CO2. If we can create US-Chinese business partnerships, the transfer of technology both ways could take years off the time when CCS is widely deployed.

At the outset, I mentioned that for me, CCS can also mean ‘Copy Canada’s Successes’. Someday, it could also mean ‘Copy China’s Successes’ too. China could be the key to creating global synergies that allow us to develop CCS technology with little or no subsidies, and no price on carbon.

To jumpstart CCS in the US, look to Canada and China, 1 of 3 | Global CCS Institute

To John Thompson, CCS is an acronym with more than one meaning. To anyone in the Global CCS Institute’s community it means ‘carbon capture and storage, or sequestration.’ As director of the Coal Transition Project at the Clean Air Task Force, Thompson’s career is committed to accelerating the development of technologies to help cut greenhouse gas emissions from coal. He sees other possibilities for the three-letter acronym too.

On eyeing the progress being made by Canada, Thompson quips that the US might benefit if we took the acronym to mean ‘Copy Canada’s Success.’ He contends our northern neighbor has gotten the mix of incentives, policies, and industry concentration just right, so that programs are gaining momentum, at a time when US efforts are off-again than on-again.

China offers another variant of the acronym: ‘Collaborate with China’s System.’ Thompson sees huge potential gains for the US by collaborating with China, as its huge energy sector continues to binge new coal-fired power plants. With its deep capital resources, fast construction timelines, and willingness to demo cutting edge carbon capture systems.

My introduction to Thompson’s views came in New York last fall at the Institute’s roundtable for Climate Week. Intrigued by his vision of the promise of cross border collaboration, I spoke with him more recently at greater length to learn more about his take on CCS in the US, Canada and China. I’ve broken down our conversation in three parts. This first part, below, touches on US and Canadian efforts. In Part II, due tomorrow, Thompson opines on the barrier posed by a premature focus on CCS liability. In Part III, due Wednesday, he outlines an ambitious collaboration his organisation is developing between utilities and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) players in the US with their peers in China.

There is a lot of criticism saying that CCS efforts in the US are foundering. You’ve suggested we look to the north for a better way. Why?

It’s my version of CCS: ‘Copy Canada’s Successes.’ There are three things that Canada has done well that are key to making CCS work. One is incentives — the carrot part. For example, Alberta has put C$2 billion on the table to move a number of projects that will probably sequester about five million tons annually of CO2 by 2015. Some of those are going to break ground in 2012 or even this year.

The second thing: they’ve done regulations right, in a way that provides a reason to do CCS. These aren’t final, admittedly. But they’re taking shape. In the fall, Canada issued draft federal regulations that will set, for the first time, CO2 emission limits on coal plants. These rules set emissions at the level of an uncontrolled natural gas plant — so, call it a 65 per cent reduction. The key thing is you have to meet that standard whether you’re a new or an existing plant. But if you’ve certified that you’re going to put on carbon capture and storage, you can meet the new standard in 2025. That timing is important. It sets up an achievable standard — what I call a ‘partial capture’ level — and offers enough time to actually get the planning and construction completed. That’s a really good formulation that the US could learn from.

Then the third thing that they’ve done right is what I call the ‘nucleus’ of a CCS industry: the ICO2N network, which brings together coal, oil sands, and power utilities, all of whom have a strong interest in developing CO2 capture and storage in Canada.

What makes for a CCS nucleus area?

Look, this is no different than the car business. If you wanted to start manufacturing autos 50 years ago, you needed a lot of other industries assembled around you, to give you the component parts, the engineering services, and so on. It’s not quite a perfect analogy, but with CO2 there is a similarity.

For a one‑off CCS project, that’s an approach that can be done once, practically anywhere. But if you really want to do two or three projects, you need to create a community of skills and resources that is more sustainable, to build pipeline infrastructure, develop regulatory knowhow, nurture a critical mass of specialized engineers and geologists, and so on.

It’s the combination of incentives, rules, and an industry nucleus that make up the ‘secret sauce,’ so to speak, that we need to be replicated elsewhere around the world for CCS to thrive.

Some have said the US experience has suffered for being spread too thin, with projects in the South, Midwest and Northeast. Does the concentration of resources help?

Yes. Creating a density of projects in a certain area facilitates other things, like pipeline development, or developing regulations and regulatory expertise that enable projects to move ahead.

I think the Department of Energy has put forward something like US$8 billion over the years on CCS projects in various locations. But imagine if you had focused all that money, say, in Texas, where there’s a lot of EOR. You might have seen a faster, bigger bang for your buck. Canada, for its part, is concentrating more of its efforts in its middle section, though there are other projects farther afield.

Here in the US, we have a similar nucleus in the Gulf states, where oil and CO2knowhow are deeply rooted. What’s the potential there?

[We] just hired Dr. Frank Chou, a 30-year veteran of the petrochemical industry, in Texas to facilitate what we call the Gulf States-China Initiative. Think about Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas: they’re all places with either a lot of oil fields, a lot of EOR — or a lot of potential EOR — and a lot of expertise. You have many of the key resources in place, such as the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology. You have companies like Denbury that build pipelines. You have a billion tons of CO2 injected over the last 30 years in the Permian Basin alone. There is a lot of real, hands-on experience there, ranging from the drilling, to the pipeline, to the monitoring.

It’s interesting to look where US CCS integrated projects are happening at the highest rate. There was a lot of flurry in the Midwest, initially, over the last 10 years, but it’s really been places like Mississippi and Texas where the projects are actually breaking ground. You have the Kemper Plant in Radcliffe, Miss., Southern Co.’s 582 megawatt IGCC plant with 65 per cent capture that broke ground last December. And there’s Summit Power’s Texas Clean Energy Project, too, which looks to be on track to break ground next year.

Both of these plants are globally important. Kemper is a big deal: this isn’t a pilot-scale project. It’s the real deal, a full-scale IGCC plant, approved by the Mississippi Public Service Commission to be funded out of the utility’s rate-base. And, it’s selling the CO2 for use in EOR, via a pipeline being built by Denbury. Likewise, TCEP’s model is all about commercial viability, by converting some of the CO2 into urea and other chemical by-products, and selling the remainder of the CO2for EOR.

This ends part I of my chat with Thompson. Tomorrow he discusses how worries over liability of CO2 storage are putting the cart before the horse.

Next…

** For more on the Texas Clean Energy Project, check out my recent Q&A with Summit Power’s Laura Miller, who is championing the TCEP project.

Meet the Change Makers: Maersk Gets Shipshape | OnEarth

How the world’s largest shipping line orders up efficiency. Maersk Line executive Jacob Sterling tells us how.

If global commerce has a circulatory system, it’s the network of thousands of container vessels that ply the world’s oceans, moving goods from port to port. On a typical run, one of these floating juggernauts might pick up thousands of tons of the latest e-gizmos from Shanghai, then a load of toys from Hong Kong to deliver to U.S. consumers. On the return trip, it might haul grain and other commodities from the Midwest, along with recycled paper and metal scrap harvested from New York City’s trash. Over the past half-century, the worldwide adoption of neatly stackable, truck-sized container boxes has driven down freight costs by 99 percent while spurring growth in global trade nearly 100-fold. Without the humble container ship, your glossy iPad would still be a figment of some designer’s imagination.

The dark side of this oceanic trade boom is pollution. Because they burn “bunker fuel” — the dirtiest and therefore cheapest type of oil  — the world’s floating freighters emit staggering volumes of black, sooty pollution. Recent EU estimates suggest that in a single year, a single gargantuan container ship vents the same amount of smog-forming sulfur oxide (SOx) gases as 50 million cars annually. By that count, it takes less than two dozen of the largest container vessels to belch out the same amount of pollution as the world’s entire stock of roughly one billion vehicles. In fact, the world’s freighter fleet is responsible for about 3.5 percent of global warming emissions, about twice the share of the aviation sector.

In the face of these numbers, Maersk Line, the world’s largest operator of container vessels, is taking steps to green its operations. This isn’t an entirely altruistic effort on Maersk’s part — it knows new air-pollution rules are soon tightening in both the EU and the United States and wants to get the jump. Last February, the Copenhagen-based company announced that it plans to build the largest, most energy-efficient container ships on the seas. In a deal with Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Maersk inked plans to buy 10 new energy-efficient vessels, with options for 20 more, to be delivered by 2016. They ain’t cheap: At around $190 million apiece, and more than 1,300 feet long, the new ships will carry 18,000 containers apiece — 16 percent more than today’s largest vessels. Maersk says they will emit 20 percent less carbon dioxide per container, and featuring advanced new engines, consume 35 percent less fuel per container.

OnEarth’s Adam Aston talked with Jacob Sterling, Maersk Line’s head of climate and environment, about how the company’s very big boats can make a smaller impact on the environment.

Freight ships are among the largest mobile objects in the world. How do you decrease the environmental impact of their operations?

One way is what we call “slow steaming.” In a vessel as big as a freighter, if you cut speed by 20 percent, we found you cut fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by as much as 40 percent. We don’t run all lines 20 percent slower all the time, but we aim to do it as much as possible. For example, we may run slow on a delivery of low-value scrap metal and paper going from Europe to China, but boost speed on the return trip when we’re moving more valuable, time-sensitive fashion apparel. Also, if you slow a given vessel down by 20 percent you might need to add more ships to that route to ensure reliable service for the customer. Overall, though, we see 5 to 15 percent savings in fuel and CO2 emissions on routes that are slow steaming.

Are your big shipping customers asking for greener shipping options?

It’s growing in importance and is part of a mix of services they are seeking. But it can be challenging for them because the push to save energy and cut costs runs counter to many years of trying to make supply chains more efficient. That means that until now the paradigm has been: faster, faster, faster. So much so that in 2007, we took delivery of new, super-fast freight vessels — compared to regular freighters, they’re practically speed boats — that could go almost 30 knots [35 mph]. Conventional vessels cruise at around 25 knots [29 mph], and slow steaming is 20 knots [23 mph].

But now we’re selling off the speed boats because they’re so inefficient at slower speeds. Instead, the vessels we will take delivery of this year will have wide hull shapes and advanced engines that recapture waste heat, to be more efficient, not faster.

Is there any promise in efforts to replace the pollutant-heavy bunker fuel with biofuels?

We’re looking into it. But the volumes we need mean it’s a ways off still. The first generation of biofuels has been disappointing. Often these fuels don’t score well in terms of how much CO2 they actually save [over their entire life cycle] relative to fossil fuels. And the quantities, so far, are too low for our needs. But we’re optimistic. Unlike jets, which need very pure biofuels that remain stable at very low temperatures, our engines could work on biofuels that are less refined. It would certainly help with the challenge we face of getting sulfur out of our fuel supply, because biofuels have close to none.

In port cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle and Hong Kong, freighters are a major source of air pollution. How can you change this?

While in port and while approaching them, we’ve already begun to switch to cleaner marine diesel fuels. In Hong Kong, one of the world’s busiest ports, we led this effort, voluntarily, in a way that led about a dozen other shipping lines to do the same.

In port, the cleaner marine diesel we use is closer to automotive diesel. In Hong Kong, for instance, the fuel we’re using has just 0.1 to 0.5 percent sulfur, whereas regular bunker fuel has up to 20 times more. Bunker fuel isn’t like normal oil. It’s more like asphalt. It has to be heated first before it can be pumped into engines to be burnt.

What about using plug-in electric sources in port, as are offered in Los Angeles and other ports? Are those a factor in cutting pollution, and are they spreading in use?

Shoreside power is certainly a way to cut pollution — but it’s only an option in ports. We are looking into shoreside power, but it does have the downside that we then become dependent on the power sources available locally. Most often electricity production is based on fossil fuels, so it is not a silver bullet.

How well is the global shipping business prepared for the inevitability of rising oil prices?

Higher and more volatile fuel prices have become the new normal in the shipping industry. Increasing fuel prices increase the price on transportation, but they also has the effect that those shipping lines that are best at saving energy and fuel save a lot of money and are more profitable. So increasing fuel prices can actually drive development of cleaner shipping.

Step back and consider the full scope of Maersk Line’s efforts to green its operations. What has been the overall impact?

Since 2007, we have reduced our relative CO2 emissions by more than 14 percent per container moved. This is due to the introduction of slow steaming, as well as our continuous focus on running our vessels more efficiently. In terms of changing the culture of our company, it’s difficult to say. It has always been in the values of Maersk Line to protect the environment and try to be a good global citizen. But now environmental performance is a key element of our business strategy. I think that we as employees will become more aware of the role we play in driving Maersk Line and the shipping industry towards better environmental performance.

How do you feel the industry as a whole is responding to this challenge?

I think that the industry could step up its efforts to develop CO2 regulations for shipping. And Maersk Line strongly supports the goals of the International Maritime Organization to develop them. But without global CO2 regulations for shipping, the sector as a whole risks being seen as a laggard even though it has real potential to drive the transition toward an economy that uses fewer fossil fuels and produces less CO2.


Sidebar: Truth Squad

NRDC’s Rich Kassel weighs in on the pollution challenge facing the world’s shipping lines

Last June in Belgium, Maersk CEO Eivind Kolding told leaders of the world’s great shipping lines that if they are to maintain their role as primary carriers of the world’s goods, the industry must change. As environmental concerns multiply and technology improves, he said, the industry must reduce emissions and clean up operations.

Prodding its peers toward greener practices is nothing new for Maersk. The company “has consistently been ahead of the pack on a wide range of environmental issues,” says Rich Kassel, senior attorney and director of NRDC’s clean fuels and vehicles project. “It has continually signaled where environmental performance will go next.”

Maersk voluntarily lowered sulfur levels in its fuel at U.S. ports years before rules required it. Other industry players resisted the move, arguing that the use of high-sulfur bunker fuel was the only way to stay profitable. But emissions from the dirtier bunker fuels take a huge toll, both on nearby communities — typically low-income communities of color, which bear the brunt of the harm — and nationally, causing tens of thousands of premature deaths every year, as well as increased asthma emergencies and other serious health problems.

Maersk proved that it was possible to use cleaner fuel and still make profits. And its move made it easier for the International Maritime Organization and government regulators to require its competitors to follow suit. “When Maersk shows that something works, it’s easier to advance policies that change the entire industry,” Kassel says.

In the wake of Maersk’s switch to cleaner fuel, the IMO adopted new rules that will soon require all ships to use cleaner fuels whenever they are operating within 200 miles of U.S. coasts. Starting in 2015, ships in this zone will use fuel that contains 97 percent less sulfur than today’s average. This switch will translate into 14,000 fewer premature deaths and $110 billion in health care savings per year by 2020, Kassel says.

Adam Aston


Original URL for story: http://www.onearth.org/article/meet-the-change-makers-maersk-gets-shipshape

Green Pinstripes: Wharton School of Business Dean Thomas Robertson Talks About Sustainability | OnEarth

Stroll through practically any business school in the country — or any of the fast-multiplying U.S.-style B-schools overseas — and there can be little doubt that an MBA remains a hot commodity. With the start of classes now upon us, business schools are prepping for another near-record year. During this recession, as in past downturns, applications have surged, with candidates looking to use the slowdown to upgrade their credentials.

Just a couple of years ago, this bumper crop might have seemed unlikely. In 2009 the financial meltdown exposed the outsize role played by financial MBAs and math-whiz PhDs in crafting the house-of-cards investment vehicles that all but crashed Wall Street.

Critics pointed to another, deeper cause: a culture of profit at all cost that had been incubated in business schools. “The really grim news for the MBA…is about more than short-term trends,” wrote Matthew Stewart in Slate back in March 2009. “The economic crisis has exposed long-standing flaws…in the very idea of business education.”

If the recession hasn’t dimmed the prospects of B-schools, the crisis of confidence has spurred a flurry of curriculum makeovers at top institutions. Ethics, of course, have come into greater focus. In parallel, there’s been a rising appetite on the part of students and faculty alike to study more sustainable approaches to business. The number of programs emphasizing social, environmental, and ethical issues has been rising steadily in recent years, according to Beyond Grey Pinstripes, an independent, biennial survey of business schools managed by the Aspen Institute.

For a look at how sustainability and post-crash ethics are evolving at an elite business school, there’s no better laboratory than the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, one of the nation’s oldest and largest B-schools and an important nursery for Wall Street talent.

Thomas Robertson took over as dean of the school in August 2007. As the dust from the financial crisis has settled, he has worked to boost the profile of sustainability in Wharton’s curriculum and among its staff. To be sure, Wharton remains strongly focused on finance, even as highly ranked competitors such as Michigan’s Ross School or Berkeley’s Haas School have made sustainability a core commitment. Notably, none of the nation’s top three B-schools — Chicago’s Booth, Harvard Business School, and Wharton, according to Bloomberg Businessweek’s latest rankings — appear in Beyond Grey Pinstripes.

Robertson says Wharton is hoping to change this. Adam Aston, a freelance writer and former energy and environment editor for BusinessWeek, spoke recently with him about sustainability and the greening of Wharton at his office on the school’s leafy campus near downtown Philadelphia.

Sustainability as a business strategy is still the exception, and there haven’t been many successful, mass-market “green” brands. Why do you think that is?

Green business is still quite young. Yet even in that fairly short time, there are some serious questions about whether you can brand green any longer, because the public is so suspicious. To some extent it has reason to be. It’s easier to recall fallen green champions who have failed terribly than it is to come up with green success stories. BP is a poster child for this. The company emphasized for years how green it was, even as the environmental concerns about its operations were mounting, and then the problem spiraled out of control with the Gulf oil spill. Companies have to be careful. They should first ask, do green claims really differentiate our product, and should we be emphasizing that? If so, are those claims credible? Will consumers believe us? There’s a lot that can go wrong, so it’s no surprise that companies remain shy.

Are you hesitant to brand Wharton as a greener business school? You don’t appear in the Beyond Grey Pinstripes rankings, for example.

Wharton has had a funny love/hate relationship with rankings in general. A predecessor of mine, along with the deans at Harvard and a few other institutions, decided some years ago to stop participating. But the ranking services rate us regardless, using information from outside sources. Beyond Grey Pinstripes is among the most demanding, because it requires that we survey the content of individual courses to identify which ones have green content. However now we’re cooperating again for the first time in a long while, and we have full-time people substantially dedicated to answering these requests. The Aspen Institute is probably the most reputable place out there ranking green initiatives in schools. It’s a good place for us to be, whether someday we come in first or thirtieth.

Did you pick up any shift toward greener goals since the financial crisis?

The aftermath of the crisis has reinforced one of the longest-standing strategic pillars of the curriculum at Wharton: social impact. From environment to labor and other social dimensions of business, there’s very much a belief here that business schools must be a force for good in the world. Even so, this is the biggest school in the country. We have 4,900 graduate students plus a few hundred undergrads. And some of our alumni do still go astray.

Do you have any star faculty members working on green issues?

One is our vice dean of social impact, Len Lodish, who also leads Wharton’s Global Consulting Practicum. Among other things, this sends groups of MBAs overseas to apply business skills to solving social and environmental problems. One team recently went to Botswana, for example, to help develop a sustainable funding model for a health partnership. I’d also mention Eric Orts, the director of Wharton’s Initiative for Global Environmental Leadership. Eric is a lawyer and tends to come at these issues from that perspective. He argues that business as usual is quite likely to lead to major environmental catastrophes, and he’s pushing for Wharton to get ahead of the curve on these issues. It’s clear that sustainability is here to stay. I think it has come into its own as a business priority. We all realize that we’re going to destroy the planet if we don’t get on board.

In many business schools, the interest in sustainability is coming from the bottom up, from the students.

It’s true. A lot of student efforts are bubbling up here. Emily Schiller graduated with an MBA from Wharton in 2009 and chose to stay here to become the school’s first associate director of sustainability and environmental leadership.That role grew out of her involvement, when she was a student, as co-chair of Net Impact’s North America Conference, one of the nation’s largest nonprofit events focused on sustainability. She also works with our Student Sustainability Advisory Board, which takes student suggestions and so far has turned them into real savings of more than $100,000. One of their ideas now is to switch to natural cooling of our data center in winter, rather than using air-conditioning. If it’s cold outside, why not take advantage of that?

Sidebar: NRDC FOCUS — Peter Malik, Director of NRDC’s Center for Market Innovation

If business schools could choose one thing to enhance their focus on sustainability, what would it be?
Mortgages. The housing market has to be one of the drivers of economic recovery, but it’s still under severe pressure. Unsound lending practices were partly responsible for the mess, and we need to scale down the role of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in underwriting private-borrower risk. Banks should also incorporate sustainability criteria into mortgage scoring and pricing. Live in a mansion and drive a Hummer, and you’ll pay more. Live in an energy-efficient apartment and walk to work, and you’ll pay less.

Learn more about Location Efficient Mortgages.