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Could expensive oil rescue CCS? A talk with energy expert Michael Levi | Global CCS Institute

As oil prices continue to skirt all-time highs, there’s been a gusher of coverage about how oil producers are turning to ever more costly technologies—from going to ultra deep, to mining tar sands—to eek more oil from the earth. Against this backdrop, I wondered if the case for using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is gaining mind share, or maybe even market share?

To get a better understanding on the impact of sustained high oil prices I turned to Michael A. Levi, The David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City. A frequent author (his new book, The Power Surge, is due out this month) and a regular contributor to the CFR’s energy, security and climate blog, Levi is a prolific voice on energy issues, often quoted on the complex interplay between conventional energy, renewables, climate, and politics.

Levi first explored the linkages between high oil prices and EOR-CCS’ prospects last June, a time when oil prices were around 10 per cent lower than recent averages. In his post, Levi steps through a back-of-the-envelope assessment of the potential rewards of scaling up EOR-CCS.

In a 2010 study, Advanced Resources International estimated that a typical CO2-EOR project would require about one ton of CO2 for each 3.8 barrels of produced oil (assuming some recycling). Assuming CO2 available at $15/ton and an oil price of $112 they figured that a typical project could make a profit of about $30/bbl after returning 25% on capital.

Alas capturing and delivering CO2 from power plants costs a lot more than $15/ton. How much more? A lot depends on how much natural gas costs. A recent paper in Environmental Science & Technology uses a central estimate of $6.55/MMBtu and estimates that captured CO2 could be delivered at $73/ton. If prices are instead $5/MMBtu, which is a reasonable expectation in the United States, this would drop by about ten percent, to around $65/ton.

The authors also look at the question probabilistically. They find that there’s a 70 percent chance of being able to deliver CO2 for $100/ton or less. If you shift their natural gas price assumptions down a bit, it’s reasonable to drop this to about $90.

What would this mean for the economics of oil production? Estimated profits at $112/bbl oil would fall to about $18/bbl (part of the extra cost of CO2 would be offset by lower taxes). Once again, though, this is profit in excess of a 25 percent return on capital. Excess profits would be wiped out if oil prices fell to about $75.

Notably, the study to which Levi refers is focused on the cost of CO2 capture from natural gas processing plants—the largest industrial-scale sources of CO2 currently available. Levi’s calculation holds for proposed CCS-from-coal facilities, where planners are aiming at a similar target of delivering CO2 at less than US$100 per ton.

Back to oil prices, then. Given that crude has held steady at around US$100 per barrel in the past few years, Levi’s calculus makes CCS-EOR look like a pretty good proposition. Levi’s bottom line: “I wouldn’t count on high oil prices rescuing power plant CCS. But I wouldn’t write it off entirely either – and, even if there’s only limited deployment, the impact on technological progress could be large”.

In short, the longer the price of crude remains high, and the higher it goes the stronger the case for EOR-CCS. While it may be perilous to speculate on oil prices, the balance of indicators point towards high prices over the long term. Energy-hungry emerging markets such as China and India increasingly drive long-term demand. A recent OECD report speculated that prices could rise as high as US$270 a barrel by 2020, due largely to demand growth in emerging markets.

To keep output rising, companies are already digging deeper—literally and financially—to lift each new barrel of oil. Exxon, for example, will spend a record US$41 billion in 2013 to buoy its long-term output of oil and gas, which it expects to fall by one per cent this year. As oil companies reach for more tools to eek out every last molecule of petrol, especially from wells they already control, it seems that the case for EOR-CCS is only improving.

I caught up with Levi in March to get his take. Here’s an edited version of our conversation.

In the years since the financial crisis hit, oil prices have remained stubbornly high, despite slow growth in much of the developed world. Do sustained high prices reinforce your take on the prospects for oil’s growing role in the future of CCS?

I’ll leave it to others to make predictions on future oil prices. But it is clear that high oil prices make it more attractive to use CCS in EOR. The higher oil prices go, and the longer they remain high, the more incentive there is to invest in CCS EOR.

Short-term variances in oil prices are fairly immaterial. What matters most is that prices have been sustained. This gives people more confidence that prices will remain high over a longer spread, over a longer period of time.

No one invests for the long term based on today’s prices, especially not oil companies, which plan on multi-decade time scales. Power companies also think on very long time scales. Both are capital-heavy industries—familiar with assessing risk, pricing and financing big projects. The difference is that oil companies are more likely to be comfortable taking risks.

Given anemic US growth, why have oil prices remained near their all time highs, when adjusted for inflation?

With the exception of the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, when oil fell sharply, prices have been historically high. Prices also returned to high levels very soon after the global financial crisis.

When it comes to prices, the slow growth in the United States, following the recession, doesn’t matter in so far as we’re part of the world economy, taking a world price on oil. There’s a lot of growth in demand happening elsewhere, particularly in developing economies like China.

At the same time, even though there’s been a lot made of rising US oil output, in the global market the new sources add up to only modest supply growth. The net result is relatively high, sustained prices. Rising US oil output can help restrain prices at the margin, but it’s unlikely to crash prices on a sustained basis.

That’s partly because marginal North American oil production is fairly expensive. Whether it’s fracked oil in the Dakotas, or oil sands in Canada, these unconventional new sources are relatively costly to exploit, so require fairly high prices to be viable.

Some environmentalists have objected to the idea of CCS-EOR, maintaining that it’s perverse to pump anthropogenic CO2 into the ground to lift out fossil CO2 in the form of oil. For example Joe Romm—a former US DOE official and a leading voice on climate policy via Climate Progress—has argued that CCS-EOR will lead to more net CO2 emissions. Here he is, writing in 2007:

Capturing CO2 and injecting it into a well to squeeze more oil out of the ground is not real carbon sequestration. Why? When the recovered oil is burned, it releases at least as much CO2 as was stored (and possibly much more). Therefore, CO2 used for such enhanced oil recovery (EOR) does not reduce net carbon emissions and should not be sold to the public as a carbon offset… In short, the CO2 used to recover the oil is less than the CO2 released from that oil when you include the CO2 released from 1) burning all the refined products and 2) the refining process itself.

How do you see this issue on the net GHG impact of EOR-CCS?

Focusing only on each CO2 ton in the near term is short sighted. There are two things worth keeping in mind. The first is that at the margin, US oil production tends to primarily displace other oil production rather than supplement it. So if lifting the US barrel, in that case, leaves even a little more CO2 in the ground than the alternative, then it’s a plus. That alone reduces the impact of this practice on net emissions of greenhouse gasses.

The other perhaps more important aspect is, in the short run, what you should be focused on when it comes to CCS and EOR is the opportunity to develop the technology. The goal is to bring down its cost, which will let you apply it on a much larger scale to other industries. If you don’t start somewhere, it’s very hard to get to the point where this technology is cost-effective.

So even if applying CCS to boost EOR doesn’t create a big carbon benefit in the short run, it’s a good bet to deliver a big payoff in the longer run. It’s perhaps the most economically viable path, to ready CCS for commercial use in the electric power sector around the world.

The point is that technologies need niches to scale up, and to bring down costs. If you only focus on technologies that can solve all our problems right now at low cost, it turns out that you don’t have any.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s obviously critical that we reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. But I’m more interested in being able to make huge reductions ten years from now than in the micro-level changes that might happen before this technology is scaled up.

We’ve touched on high priced oil already. The other bogeyman in global energy markets these days is cheap North American natural gas. In early March, a Canadian coal-to-syngas project that was slated to deploy advanced CCS was mothballed in part because of low natural gas prices. Does cheap natural gas alter the calculus on CCS-EOR in any way?

If we’re talking about CCS for synthetic liquid fuels, which you asked about, those require relatively high prices to be viable. Without massive over-investment in that space, I don’t see a stampede toward synfuels. So no, even if we see more synfuels, the shift will not crash the price of oil.

On that note, keep in mind that the one thing that might change the calculus of CCS-EOR is if oil prices crash. But it’s very difficult to crash the price of oil from the supply side, especially when it’s already this expensive, unless you massively overinvest in oil production—which is very capital intensive to do—or develop a very large-scale supply of alternatives.

As far as natural gas-fuelled cars and trucks go, my answer is the same. Yes, natural gas is being used to fuel a growing—but still small—share of fleet vehicles, and yes EVs will consume more natural gas indirectly, in the form of electricity. But will the penetration of natural gas into the US transport sector fundamentally change the economics of oil? I don’t see that in the next 10 years, at least. I think it’s hard to make predictions further beyond that.

With the failure of many publicly backed CCS projects around the globe, do you see EOR as a best bet to push CCS technology ahead?

I think that may well be right. With EOR-CCS, it may not be possible to make money at a large scale without new policy, but it may at least be possible to imagine that one can, and to come closer to cover the costs of scaling up the technology in the process. Conversely, it is impossible for anyone to imagine that they can make money taking the CO2 exhaust from a coal-fired power plant and burying it underground—unless there’s a policy incentive. It’s a pure additional cost.

Entrepreneurs who put money into EOR-CCS may be right, or they may be wrong, but at least a few may be willing to push ahead. In short, CCS-EOR provides short-term economic support for innovation. If you’re concerned about the long-term prospects of CCS, you should be thinking about EOR as the way to support innovation in the technology.

What are the key hurdles then to seeing EOR-CCS progress further, faster?

Will companies have the confidence to invest in this? Are there too many risks that are confusing? Is there too much uncertainty? Are there too many technological unknowns? I think those are bigger factors compared to whether oil prices might crash, or whether the global transport system might flip to natural gas.

There’s some evidence of progress out there. There’s interest in tweaking some tax credits that exist in order to support CCS-EOR. And in his State of the Union address, the president mentioned a US$25 million prize for the first combined cycle natural gas plant to implement CCS. It’ll be interesting to see whether that prize is defined to include projects that use the CO2 for EOR.

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Check out the original post here: http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/insights/authors/adamaston/2013/03/26/could-expensive-oil-rescue-ccs-talk-energy-expert-michael-levi

Looking Ahead: CCS’ Prospects Under Ernest Moniz, Energy Secretary Nominee | Global CCS Institute

Ernest Moniz, President Obama’s newly nominated Energy Secretary, shares much with his predecessor, Steven Chu, outgoing head of the Department of Energy (DOE) and who is returning to an academic chair at Stanford University. Both men are prominent academic physicists, with long track records of advancing energy technology.

Chu proved to be a vocal advocate for clean energy technologies, especially in the realms of renewables and transportation, funneling billions in stimulus dollars into early stage R&D through DARPA-e and buoying mid-stage companies such as Tesla with federal loans. Under Chu’s watch, carbon capture and storage (CCS) remained a priority, with efforts to press ahead with FutureGen 2.0, but lacked the urgency that many stakeholders wanted to see.

Assuming a quick Senate approval—Moniz is widely regarded to face a relatively easy confirmation—so what’s in store for CCS under a Moniz-led DOE? On the downside, Moniz takes charge in a period of ever-tightening fiscal policy, so will all but certainly have less public money to deploy than did Chu.

If the conditions of the recent sequester hold, the budget for the DOE’s Fossil R&D program—under which FutureGen and other carbon capture programs are funded—will be cut by 5 per cent, or US$25 million.

On the upside, Moniz enters his new post with far more experience in rough-and-tumble Beltway tactics than did Chu. Moniz served in the second term of President Clinton’s cabinet, first as Under Secretary of Energy, and later as Associate Director for Science in the Office of Science and Technology. Moniz has frequently testified before Congress, as well.

In terms of CCS, if past is precedent, there’s reason to be hopeful, maybe even a little optimistic.

I spent some time conducting some research to map out Moniz’ work and statements on CCS. Here’s what I found. If you have other examples, please comment and add more in the comments.

As Tamar Hallerman notes at GHG Monitor, Moniz has co-authored several high-profile works on energy technology and policy in which carbon is a central issue. In The Future of Coal (2007, MIT Energy Initiative) CCS is addressed front and center, vital to extending coal’s tenure in an environmentally tolerable way. The report formally recommends both a carbon price and that the Energy Dept. alter practices in its Fossil R&D regime to accelerate the development of CCS. Retrofitting of Coal-Fired Power Plants for CO2 Emissions Reductions (2009, MIT Energy Initiative) offers far more detail on these issues. In the Summary for Policy Makers section which Moniz co-authored, he makes a detailed case for increased federal emphasis on CCS. A few quotes (emphasis added):

“The US Government must move expeditiously to large-scale, properly instrumented, sustained demonstration of CO2 sequestration, with the goal of providing a stable regulatory framework for commercial operation.”

“Real world” retrofit decisions will be taken only after evaluation of numerous site-specific factors.

CO2 capture cost reduction is important.

A robust US post-combustion capture/oxy-combustion/ultra-supercritical plant R&D effort requires about US$1 [billion per] year for the next decade.

The Federal Government should dramatically expand the scale and scope for utility-scale commercial viability demonstration of advanced coal conversion plants with CO2 capture.

The program should specifically include demonstration of retrofit and rebuild options for existing coal power plants. New government management approaches with greater flexibility and new government funding approaches with greater certainty are a prerequisite for an effective program.

Time is of the essence.

About a year ago, Moniz sat down with The Energy Switch Project to document his views across the full range of conventional and renewable energies, and related technologies. I’ve pasted below two out-takes, where he comments on coal, CCS and carbon pricing.

In the video above, Moniz makes the following statements (abridged transcript):“Coal of course is a very widely used fuel, particularly for the power sector, with the US China and India combined using about 60 per cent of the world’s coal. So if we’re going forward particularly with carbon control in the future, we simply have to figure out a way to employ coal.

The answer has to be then for a serious solution: the ability to capture CO2 and sequester it underground. The problem right now is cost. Today we would probably be adding six, seven, eight cents per kilowatt-hour to electricity produced by coal… For a brand new coal plant, we’re probably talking that’s on top of six to seven cents. So let’s call it a doubling of the cost at the plant of the production of electricity.

We might or might not be willing to pay that in the United States, but it is very difficult to understand China and India being willing to pay this kind of a premium.

Do I believe today we can start safely injecting billions of tons into an appropriate reservoir? Absolutely. That’s a different statement however to do with 30, 40, or 50 years, however, and I think those things will work out as we do it.

The other near-term issue is that we really have very little idea as to how to regulate, how to assign liability [for CCS]. The EPA is in fact working on this, but certainly it cannot be based on the old types of regulatory structures put in place for water injection.”

From the same interview, he also comments on carbon pricing, saying:

“Certainly it will never be cheaper to capture and store CO2 than it is to release it into the atmosphere so the reason we’re doing it in fact is because carbon will have a price and ultimately it has to be cheaper to capture and store it than to release it and pay a price.

If we start really squeezing down on carbon dioxide over the next two decades, that [price] could double, it could eventually triple.

I think inevitably if we squeeze down on carbon, we squeeze up on the cost, it brings along with it a push towards efficiency, it brings along with a push towards clean technologies in a conventional pollution sense. It brings along with it a push towards security. After all, the security issues revolve around carbon-bearing fuels.

Now, I think it is very important that any funds associated with that be recycled efficiently to productive uses and to address distributional questions because some of the poor may bet hit harder. There’s a lot of work to do, but in the end, if you take one simple thing, that’s the direction I think we need to go in.”

You can check out a continuous stream of Moniz’ full 22-minute interview on Vimeo, or pick and choose Moniz’ comments on a single topic, in short 1-2 minute segments, the interview is conveniently split into shorts by topic.

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Check out the original post here:

http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/insights/authors/adamaston/2013/03/19/ccs%E2%80%99-prospects-under-energy-secretary-nominee-ernest-moniz

Jeffrey Sachs’s bright vision at Climate Week | Global CCS Institute

In this post, Adam Aston takes a look at some of the singular messages contained withing Professor Jeffrey Sachs’ important address at Climate Week in New York. Below Adam’s analysis is a lightly edited transcript of Professor Sachs’ address.

I write and read about the climate every day. Yet, even after years of tracking the complex cast of climate issues, every now and then my perspective is dramatically re-booted by what I think of as a ‘cathartic climate message’. It happens when a remarkable mind can yank your mind’s eye back up to the highest level of concern for the planetary risk posed by carbon pollution. For many people—myself included—An Inconvenient Truth did just this, synthesizing vast frontiers of information into a single, lucid, alarming message that sparked a fundamental awakenings.

At Climate Week NYC a few weeks ago, Jeffrey Sachs did likewise, forcefully reminding an audience of 200 or so climate veterans of the scale of the risk ahead, and that both technical and political solution are at hand.

Nearly 20 years ago, The New York Times dubbed Sachs “probably the most important economist in the world”. Now based at Columbia University, Sachs earned this reputation by applying economic theory to real-world development problems with remarkable fervor. In so doing, he has married the often-at-odds worlds of quantitative academic economics with the vexing, on-the-ground challenges of humanitarian development.

In his world-view, poverty, hunger, disease, and environmental degradation are not merely painful dynamics happening far away, they are solvable problems with knowable causes and testable solutions. Accordingly, Sachs has not been shy to role up his sleeves, and apply dramatic economic medicine on a large scale, and not always successfully.

Sachs’ blend of pragmatism and penetrating intelligence has won him influence across the globe, from the U.N. to the White House. At Columbia, Sachs is the nodal center of much of the university’s work on international economics, public health and climate. He is head of the school’s Earth Institute, as well as the Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia’s School of Public Health.

Accordingly, Sachs has strong convictions about the failure of U.S. policy to deal with carbon pollution, and accelerate carbon capture and renewables. Though Sachs was speaking roughly a month before the recent U.S. presidential elections, he was highly critical of cap-and-trade policy proposals. Though palpably frustrated with federal climate policy, Sachs publicly supported President Obama and has lobbied the White House to impose a carbon tax.

Amidst post-election jockeying to overhaul the U.S. tax code, Sachs’s take on carbon taxes looks prescient. Immediately following the election, conservative Washington think tanks have been exploring the impacts of a carbon tax with unprecedented seriousness. As Keith Johnson observes in The Wall Street Journal:

Today [Nov. 13] the conservative American Enterprise Institute is holding an all-day, on-the-record discussion of the idea [of a carbon tax]. And the Brookings Institution is unveiling a slate of new measures meant to make the government more effective, including a carbon tax that could raise $1.5 trillion over ten years. All that follows a cascade of carbon-tax advocacy in recent days from the chattering classes and a slate of academic work over the summer…

Sachs is confident a carbon tax could be deployed—and, importantly, sold to the public—by back-loading the tax so that it scales gradually. By using revenues to subsidize renewables and by giving investors a clear signal about future carbon costs, Sachs argues a tax will be more effective than cap-and-trade at steering investment towards low carbon technologies such as CCS.

Sachs spoke for an hour, without notes, reeling off reams of detailed economic and climate data from memory. However sharp his views, they offer an invaluable reference for why work on low-carbon technologies must continue, and quite possibly useful advice to help shape a future carbon policy. After his speech, he was interviewed by Climate Week, the video of which is below.

Following, find a lightly-abridged transcript of Sachs’s presentation to Climate Week.

Climate change is here, now

Thank you.

I’m pleased to be here and to know this group is grappling with these complicated topics. There are no known answers to this problem yet, so I could just sit down. [laughter]

Climate change is certainly the most complicated challenge that humanity has ever had to take on because the problems go to the core of our economic system. Energy is the most important sector of the modern economy.

And yet we have grown up for 200 years on a fossil fuel-based economy. So far, that has been a great thing for the world. Except now, it could ruin the world. We don’t have a clear pathway out of this and unfortunately time is short.  We have already filled the atmosphere with greenhouse gases to a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.

In other words, the urgency of climate change is not as we first spoke about it 20 years ago, as a threat to our children and our children’s children. Rather, it is here now. We’ve entered what the geologists call the Age of the Anthropocene, meaning the period in Earth’s history when a single species—homo sapiens—has major Earth dynamics under our strong, and not so beneficial, influence.

Greenhouse gas emissions have already risen to a level that, in past history of the world, coincided with ocean levels many meters higher than they are now. This shows that we’ve already reached a level of human-induced change that, if it now unfolds over decades or perhaps centuries with all of the feedbacks included, we’ve already fundamentally changed the planet.

We’ve already emitted enough carbon dioxide to reduce the pH of the ocean by 0.1 units and we’re on a path to reduce the pH by about 0.4 units perhaps by mid-century. This could destroy a tremendous amount of the marine life around carbonate-needing species. Even aside from anticipated changes to the atmosphere, ocean acidification is coming from CO2 dissolving in the ocean surface and affecting the carbonate balance, the buffering function of the ocean. This dynamic, on its own, is enough to do tremendous harm.

Climate arithmetic

The point I want to make is that we’re already in the middle of dramatic change. We have not yet succeeded mentally, we have not yet succeeded technologically, and we certainly have not yet succeeded politically in finding a way forward.

The arithmetic is not all that complicated. It’s the solutions that are complicated.

The arithmetic is that the world economy is now amounts to $70 trillion per year. That’s seven billion people, on average, producing $10,000 per person in common units of purchasing power. We use about 200 kilograms of oil-equivalent energy for each $1,000 of GNP globally. It’s not so different across all scales of poor to rich countries actually, because energy scales with the level of production more or less proportionately.

For each kilogram of oil-equivalent energy unit, we emit about 2.4 kilograms of CO2. That’s a measure of the carbon intensity of our energy.  If you multiply our energy use–the roughly 200 kilograms of oil-equivalent energy per $1,000 of output—by the roughly 2.4 kilograms of CO2 per kilogram of oil-equivalent energy, you see that we use about 0.46 kg of oil equivalent energy per dollar of GNP and emit about 460 kilograms of CO2 for every $1,000 of income.

Multiply that factor by global GDP, or $70 trillion, and that turns out to be about 33 billion tons of CO2 that we emit per year. Given the holding capacity of the atmosphere, that rate of emissions is raising the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by about 2.5 parts per million per year.

The result is fairly simple math. We went from about 280 parts per million in the pre-industrial era to about 395 parts per million now. We’re on a path of increasing that number by roughly 2.5 parts per million every year.

How dangerous, at what level?

Now, what level is dangerous? It depends who you ask.

I regard my colleague [at Columbia University], Jim Hansen, as the premier climate scientist in the United States. He has taken the most flak from climate skeptics and that’s a good indication that he’s the most important and the most accurate of all the climate scientists. Twenty-four years ago Hansen told the U.S. Congress for the first time what our planet would be like if we went on with business as usual for another quarter century. It’s a quarter century later now, and it’s clear, he nailed this prediction almost to a decimal point.

Ask Hansen what is a dangerous level CO2 accumulation, and he’ll tell you that we passed the safe level by about 45 parts per million. He puts the threshold back at about 350 parts per million. Every time in Earth’s history when we’ve been above that threshold, ocean levels have been several meters higher.

So why aren’t they higher now? They’re haven’t risen yet because there are feedbacks that take time. For example, given the CO2 that we’ve emitted so far, the Earth’s temperature has warmed by about 0.8°C from the recent historical average. If we allow even the relatively short feedbacks to accumulate further to what we’ve already done—not adding any additional CO2, just including emissions to date—we’re going to have about twice that amount in warming.

In other words, we’ve already built in planetary warming of about 1.6°C, but we’ve observed only about half of that so far because the ocean takes time to warm up. It’s a big bathtub. It has a tremendous heat capacity. It’s warming, but it takes time.

That only accounts for changes to date, however. As Hansen points out, we need to factor in longer-term feedbacks: the loss of polar ice, changing the albedo of the Earth’s surface; the possible degassing of CO2 from deep oceans; methane release from permafrost; and others. These happen in highly non-linear ways.

Taking into account these effects as well, and we’re talking about a massive change of the planet, a massive change of sea level, a massive change of ocean chemistry, and a massive loss of species diversity.

Denial has real costs

We tell ourselves, “It’s okay. We have time. Maybe we’ll get to 450. That’s okay. What’s a couple degrees Centigrade among friends?”

In this country, we have our leading business newspaper, The Wall Street Journal, propounding these sorts of myths every day in its editorials, with a directly antiscientific propaganda. At the same time, it’s a wonderful newspaper—it’s got great news stories. But its opinion pages are extremely damaging because we’re already into the midst of massive climate disruption.

For example, this year, we had our 12 warmest months in U.S. history, spanning from July 2011 through to July 2012. In fact, July 2012 has turned out to be the single warmest month recorded in U.S. history.

We’ve had the worst drought in modern history, which has done great damage to the corn crop. Food prices are soaring.

We’ve had a presidential campaign where this issue has barely been mentioned—perhaps in one speech, in one paragraph. We have willful neglect because of the power of the lobbies. Politicians’ main job is to raise money to run advertisements and that costs a lot of money and the oil companies have a lot of money.

So here we are in the middle of this disaster and we can’t even talk about it. Now if we could talk about it we’d find out, “God, this is harsh. What are we going to do?”

The fact of the matter is that this is not in U.S. hands, even though the U.S. remains the largest economy, at least for a few more years. China may overtake the United States by 2017 or 2018 in total purchasing power.

In total carbon emissions, China has already overtaken the United States. China is by far the largest emitter and its emissions will continue to rise dramatically because—even with all of the innovative, renewable energy coming on line there, as well as all of the nuclear plants it is building—China is also increasing massively its use of coal. China is a coal-rich country, and what it can’t get domestically it’s importing from Australia.

The developing countries as a whole are now in the driver’s seat of the world climate in the future. They ask:

Why should we do anything? The most powerful country in the world—the United States, the richest country, the one with the highest per capita emissions of any major economy—won’t do anything. Why should we do anything? We need to catch up. We’re still poor. We’re still only one-fifth the per capita income of the United States. Why look to us? We just happen to have a lot of people.

They have a point. Except that this kind of relentless prisoner’s dilemma logic—“You first. No, you first. Thank you, no. I’ll do it after you”—is going to wreck the planet.

Destabilizing Africa

Before I turn to a couple of the possible solutions, I should say that the impacts are not just things like the heat wave in Europe, which took many lives, or the crop failures here in the U.S. this year.

There is also devastation occurring in drier, poorer parts of the world, especially in the horn of Africa and the Sahel [a region spanning the northern third of the African continent, where desert transitions into savannah].

Nobody knows for sure but the evidence seems to be that the warming of the Indian Ocean has pulled the rainfall off the coast of East Africa into the Indian Ocean. It’s led to a significant drying of what is already one of the driest places in the world: Ethiopia, Somalia, northern Uganda, northern Kenya and that area.

There have been horrendous droughts in recent years. That’s contributed to lots of violence, lots of extremism, and Al Qaeda. Then the drone missiles fly and we’re into a kind of a mind-boggling spiral of places in the world becoming almost uninhabitable. Instead of working on their resiliency, digging bore wells and helping with agriculture, instead we see war taking over.

In West Africa it’s a similar story, albeit with a different underlying mechanism. The Sahel has also faced a massive drought this year. We have already lost one country to collapse. Mali experienced tremendous violence in the form of coup in the south and an insurrection in the north.

If there’s a message from these cases, it’s this: Don’t be complacent. Don’t think we’re going to work it all out. Don’t expect that we’re going to learn, or that everything will be fine, or that we’ll get our act together.

Our capacity to wreck things is very high. The world’s economy keeps growing, there’s a lot of fossil fuel, and we’re very good at finding new ways to dig it up and burn it. We have the hydrofracking boom right now, as well as oil sands and oil shale. Anything we can find to burn, we will burn.

If we do that we will completely wreck the planet. And we’re already well advanced in doing that.

So that’s the problem. Now what’s the solution?

Low carbon technologies: CCS and renewables

The solution is we need alternatives. We have lots of candidates. We need to de-carbonize the global energy system.

By 2050, today’s world economy of $70 trillion should be maybe $200 trillion, if poor countries grow successfully. They will need a tremendous amount of energy. Even if we’re highly energy-efficient, the need for primary energy will grow tremendously.

To grow, we must turn to low-carbon energy. There are basically two ways to do that. One is to use primary energy sources that are not coal, oil, gas or things like it. That could be renewables, wind, solar, or geothermal. It could be nuclear.

The other alternative is to use those sorts of fossil fuels but to clean up after ourselves using carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS.

There are two logical chains of carbon capture and sequestration. One is to capture the CO2 as you burn it, at power plants, and sequester it safely geologically. The other, which one of my colleagues is working very hard to do, is to try to capture CO2 directly from the air. That’s more expensive because you have a diffuse source of CO2: it’s only 395 parts per million molecules in the atmosphere. If this can be done, it has an advantage because then you don’t need pipelines to transport it. Also, you can put the collectors in places best suited to geologically sequester it directly.

There is nothing wrong with fossil fuels. This is not a moral question, except for the CO2 issue. Using fossil fuels would be great—it’s gotten us a long way in the world, except it’s dangerous if we don’t clean up.

CCS is an extremely important potential technology for doing this. I think the overall logic of what to do is fairly clear. The overall logic is to clean up our power grid and convert our internal combustion to some form of electricity because cars can’t capture their own CO2 out of their exhaust. If we want to handle the roughly 25 percent of CO2 that’s emitted by our vehicles, the transport sector has to use a low-carbon power source. And that can be electrification.

The basic path of what we is this: We must move from a fossil fuel-emitting electric power sector and internal combustion-driven transportation sector to an electric power sector that is essentially carbon free and a transportation that is fuelled by carbon-free electric power sector.

Tipping the balance towards carbon free power

We’re not getting there right now because it requires extra resources to get there. You need to tip the balance to get moving in the right direction go by making market signals that us in that direction rather than in the current direction.

Right now, the market signals are pretty clear. If you want base-load electric power, burn coal. It’s cheap. It gives you reliable electricity at the lowest possible cost. Your industry will be competitive and our planet will end up destroying itself.

We need to put a signal that is much more powerful and at the same time, do a lot of research and development to figure out which of these pathways is viable and at what cost.

It’s not enough, by the way, to just put a price on carbon. We have to make societal decisions as well. For example, what do we think of nuclear power? Who is in favor? I am. Anybody else? Okay, a few people. Who’s against? All right.

The price of carbon will not decide this question. We’re going to need to vote, to debate it. We’re going to need to have a plan. There are valid arguments on both sides of this issue, but we’d better decide it and it’s not enough to have Cap and Trade to decide it. We actually need to have public decision-making and much more rational scrutiny of the options.

Other technologies pose tough decisions too. For instance, if we’re going to deploy renewables at scale, we need public right-of-ways for high-voltage transmission lines. We need to carry wind from the Dakotas to the populated centers.

We need to decide what we’re going to do with the Mojave Desert. How many solar panels are going to fill the desert and in which way? Yet not many people live in the Mojave. So you have to move energy to where it’s needed. That requires right-of-ways, land management, public decisions, ecosystem protection and so forth.

I’m in favor of these low-carbon options. But to be clear, all of them all require consensus and public investment.

U.S. policy paralysis

So what do people here [at this talk] think about the U.S. energy plan, the Obama plan? Have you read it?

It doesn’t exist. Obama’s rhetoric—“All of the above”—is not a plan. All of the above is to get past the election. There is no plan here.

It’s worse than my first year students by far, who easily can put together spreadsheets and give options and decide what to do. We have a Nobel Laureate Secretary of Energy in this country. Who has seen him recently?

Of course, he’s not been visible during the election because he might say something real. That could upset somebody and that could trigger advertisements by Super PACS.

So we have nothing. No plans energy, no policy documents, no long-term strategy, no honest speeches, no discussion at all. I have never seen anything like it. It’s almost a complete collapse of politics in this country. Or I should say it’s almost a complete collapse of policy in this country. There is no policy, by design. Policy is dangerous. Somebody might object. Somebody might not contribute to the campaign.

And so neither side says a word right now. But four years ago, this President wanted to do something. The one thing they tried to do—cap and trade—was the wrong thing. I want to emphasize this: Cap and trade is absolutely the wrong approach for this problem. Cap and trade puts a spot price on an issue that needs a 25-year price. These cap-and-trade systems were all proposed for one reason: because American politicians didn’t want to say the word “tax”.

An analogy has been made with the sulfur dioxide reductions of the 1990s, which used cap-and-trade. But that’s a completely different phenomenon from carbon emissions. Here’s why. Sulfur dioxide emissions are a flow pollutant. They don’t stay up in the air. In fact, they come down in the rain and cause acid rain. So if you put a current price on that pollution, you trigger a current decision to install smokestack scrubbers. You get the result that you want, which is reduction of sulfur oxides.

With CO2 though, you don’t want to define today’s level of CO2 emissions. What we really care about is emissions 20 years from now. What will our power system look like? Will we have made a fundamental transformation?

It actually doesn’t matter so much what we emit today because that’s already baked into our infrastructure: our energy systems, our buildings, our power plants, our cars. The question is, what are we going to have 20 years from now? And today’s price doesn’t determine that. The price 20 years from now does, along with the regulatory environment in effect then.

We need a different strategy. This is why Australia’s done the right thing to put a carbon tax, although they err by planning to convert it to a cap-and-trade system by 2015. Cap and trade does not make deeper, future choices evident. It’s not promoting the long-term technological changes that are needed.

Real costs, but ‘not worth wrecking the planet for’

As I said, climate change is just about the most complicated thing imaginable. Yet I should stress clearly, that if we really went to all the next-best energy alternatives—even using today’s technologies—we could probably de-carbonize the energy system substantially at a cost of maybe 2 percent of our GNP.

That’s a big cost. In the United States we’re a $15 trillion economy and so 2 percent is $300 billion a year of outlays. People would raise their eyebrows at that. But for a $15 trillion economy, that’s not such a big deal. It’s not worth wrecking the planet for.

The issue is complicated because it requires decisions. It requires collective action. It requires pathways. It requires a change of how we do things. It requires taking on vested interests. It requires new technologies.

That’s what makes it complicated, not that it’s going to break the world economy, or that it’s going to be the end of prosperity or anything like that. The only thing that could end prosperity is business as usual.

If we started the changeover now, at full-speed, with technologies we have right now, we could do it. The truth is we’d barely notice, although shareholders of some companies would take pretty heavy losses, a lot of Congressmen would be voted out of office. It might be quite interesting actually. But it would not break our economy or our society.

So there is fundamentally good news, which is that we have a lot of ways to proceed. We have a lot of solutions on the drawing board. Even though we will bear a cost to do this, we will still come out a happier, healthier, more robust society in the end, not only for having avoided the worst, but actually for having introduced more efficient, superior technologies.

We talked about green buildings and energy efficiency. I would add that electric vehicles add a startlingly exciting horizon for us in new forms of transport that are going to be much higher quality. Indeed, that newspaper that I like so much, The Wall Street Journal—except for its miserable op-ed section—had a wonderful insert today about the inevitability of self-driving vehicles.

As my engineering colleague says, it’s dangerous to text and to drive at that same time, so stop driving. That’s what the technology is going to allow us to do. And because it’s electric you can do wonderful things that you can’t do with mechanical transmission and internal combustion engines.

This is not the end of prosperity. This is actually an exciting avenue ahead but we’re going to have to take some decisions. We haven’t been able to take them yet. As I look around, my thought is that maybe Washington will be the last place to act on the planet, I’m sad to say.

Even within the United States, many places are moving ahead. They’re not waiting for China. They’re not waiting for Washington. They want to have a clean and responsible energy system even if it’s more costly for them right now. They know that ultimately the world’s going to have to move in that direction, and better to be an early mover than a late mover. I find all over the world that there are early movers who are ready to step up now.

Maybe we’ll feel better when we pay less attention to U.N. climate negotiations, of which I’m a part, where we wait for total unanimity, which never comes. Rather maybe we’ll feel better when we start championing those who will move ahead first. We should draw attention to them, give them support, and change the question to one of “Who can get there fastest?” In the end, those are going to be the ones that are going to benefit most.

Thanks very much. I’ll take questions now.

Can natural gas be a bridge to a lower carbon system?

With the right rules, yes. But we don’t have those rules in place today.

If there were a framework of a gradually rising prices on carbon emissions that started low today but rose predictably to a tens of dollars per ton of CO2 by 2025, that would be meaningful.

In this case, if decision-makers today were building power plants and thinking about the future—of the grid, of transport systems and the like, and could see ahead 20 years to know the impact of carbon costs on their decisions—then I think natural gas could well be used as a short-run substitute to replace coal and it could become a stepping stone.

Without that kind of plan, natural gas will become another entrenched, carbon-emitting infrastructure, protected by yet more vested interests. What we’ll probably do is build more dedicated pipelines and more dedicated infrastructure so that it becomes even harder to get off of the natural gas habit down the road.

As natural gas grows more profitable, it becomes bigger, and more entrenched. This is a very basic point: things that can be both profitable and very bad for us. This is because the profit is based on market prices. It’s not based on true social costs. When you have something like climate change, the environmental harm is an externality, and the market price is a miserable signal for what should be done.

Those who remain zealously committed to “market prices” do so denial of basic science. At this point, it is sheer willful propaganda that drives the skeptics. It’s not about scientific doubts. It’s not about what we’re observing, nor what we’re measuring, nor what our satellite systems are telling us, nor what energy balance data are showing us, nor what’s happening to ice sheets, nor what’s happening all over the world. This is willful denial because it’s profitable right now to deny it.

It’s really the height of irresponsibility given the moral implications for future generations. I don’t know whether they think their children are going to be in a different climate zone? A different Earth? Whether they think that climate change stops at the gates of their community? Whether it only affects poor people?

I don’t know what they’re thinking, but at this point it’s so bizarre, it’s beyond any normal behavior. It’s driven by a lot of money.

How will utilities evolve?

The utilities are not really the main agents of resistance actually. The utilities are regulated. They have a pretty straightforward mandated responsibility. If pricing were to change, they would change along with it. They’d be happy to run different kinds of power plants and many utilities are not resistant to these changes.

In fact some utilities have been part of the corporate coalitions on the side of pressing for a clear framework to reduce the carbon intensity. For many years a lot of utilities like Duke have said, “Give us the right price [including carbon]. We’ll make a different decision.” They’ve been very, very clear.

I don’t regard utilities as the main agents. They buy fuel so that they transform it, they’re not really playing the same role that the Koch brothers play or that the oil sector in general plays or the coal industry, which is really the powerful resistance in the country.

How can leaders better sell smarter climate and energy policy?

There are three things that can make proper energy and climate policy more palatable and they have not been done. One is the good, solid, economic logic to backload the carbon tax. Let it build up over time. There are rigorous economic reasons to do that, and it’s also politically correct.

Phase this in. This is not about today’s emissions. This is about the kind of energy system we will have in 2025 and especially the kind we will have in 2040. We have to make a technological transition that’s quite deep: to new energy systems, to new transport systems, to more efficient buildings.

A simple calculation shows the logic of what I think is the right political strategy also. You could promise today significant reductions in tariffs to give an incentive for the transition, and totally pay for those reductions with a back loaded carbon tax.

That would work because the current base of the clean technologies you aim to subsidize is tiny. As you increase the size of the renewable sector, you need a higher tax to pay for it. You can decrease the subsidy over time, and raise the level of the tax in parallel. If you keep constant the gap between subsidies for renewables and tax revenues from carbon, you’re always saying to industry:

There is going to be a $30 or $40 or $50 per ton CO2 advantage to go to the de-carbonized source. We guarantee that for the next 30 years. Today it will come via a big feed-in tariff. In the future it’ll come by a tax, and it will gradually substitute along the way.

Second, very closely related: I’m happy to have the future pay for a lot of this. This can be bond-financed. It doesn’t have to be current-financed because the future can bear some of this. It’s not only the current generation that needs these changes, so you can use inter-temporal fiscal policy—not in an irresponsible way, but to show that the load will be paid also by those who are going to bear the benefits of the cleaner environment,

The third point that I find completely missing right now is an idea of a framework and a plan. I’ve been involved in public policy for 30 years and have contributed to large-scale transformation.

You can’t tell the public that our plan is cap-and-trade. That’s not a plan. That’s frightening. That just means, “Oh. Our electricity prices are going up. What do you mean? Why? What’s that for? That doesn’t sound good.”

You have to explain to the public, “Look. We’re going to have better vehicles, smarter buildings, a smart grid. We’re going to be able to tap into renewable energy. We’re going to be able to get off of our Middle East dependency, and here’s how, quantitatively.”

I urged the Administration to do that in 2009. I went to the White House on several occasions and I put in my two cents to say, “Have a framework. Have a plan. Waxman-Markey is not enough. You have to explain not just the policy tool. You have to explain what America’s going to look like in 20 years, how we can live better, cleaner, more independent, longer-term resources and a safer climate.”

That is missing until today. And that, to my mind, is the biggest weakness here. It’s not leveling with the public. But it’s also not explaining that this is an all-grid story. There’s a lot of exciting new technology, exciting things to do. This isn’t going to break the economy.

I think the public would rally to this. Yes, the public would. The vested interest would not. To win this game is to win the public.

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http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/insights/authors/adamaston/2012/11/27/jeffrey-sachs%E2%80%99s-bright-vision-climate-week

Innovative funding for a groundbreaking CCUS plant: The financing behind TCEP’s polygen CCUS facility | Global CCS Institute

Over the past year, the Texas Clean Energy Project (TCEP) has emerged at the front of a small pack of US projects that aim to sell their CO2 to oil drillers. By doing so, TCEP may just re-write the rules of CCS, shifting the focus from government-backed sequestration efforts, to commercially-funded projects to capture and sell CO2 to recover oil and other industrial uses. This approach shifts CCS to CCUS (carbon capture utilisation and sequestration).

This reorientation was on display at the annual meeting of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the R&D arm of the US utility industry, in Pittsburgh in May, where for the first time petroleum engineers were present in tellingly large numbers. Testament to CCUS’ rise, the event was the stage for a major push on national policy to formally tie enhanced oil recovery (EOR) together with the goal of carbon capture. (Find details of the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative (NEORI) at this post with two of the principles behind the initiative: Part I here, and Part II here).

TCEP emerged as another standout at the conference as a pioneering project that’s fully funded and on track to build a first-of-its-kind ‘poly-gen’ power plant, which converts coal into three saleable outputs: power, CO2 and industrial chemicals. I’ve written about TCEP previously here at the Global CCS Institute: first here in a Q&A with Laura Miller, former Mayor of Dallas, who has joined the team developing the project, and again in an update on the project’s progress.

At the May EPRI meeting, I got the chance to learn more about the innovative financing and business model that’s bringing TCEP to life. W. Harrison Wellford, chief executive of Wellford Energy, offered the perspective of the investment community on the project. As a financial advisor to the project, Wellford sees TCEP as a game changer in the way power generation has been conventionally developed and financed. Power plants aren’t just about electricity anymore. Think of it this way, he said: “We will pay about US$45 million for coal at mine mouth for this plant. That will produce at the end of day US$750 million in sales” of a mix of products. “You’re taking a very cheap fuel resource, and creating a valuable product through the alchemy of a plant like this.”

TCEP is drawing attention from beyond US shores. On 13 August, a group of Chinese investors including China Petrochemical Corp. (or Sinopec, China’s national oil company), announced it was in late-stage talks to invest US$1 billion to acquire an equity stake in the project. If completed, the deal would be the largest investment by China in the US power market to date, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move would advance a growing movement to link China’s rapidly expanding power sector with US advanced coal technologies. See this post for background on US-China joint efforts in CCS.

Sales outlook

To understand TCEP’s current financing, it’s necessary to first have a clear view on what the plant will produce. In his slides, Wellford explained that the project would yield three major streams of revenue: power, CO2 and urea. The following details are adapted from slides that Wellford presented.

  • Power – The plant will produce electrical output of 400 MW gross, with 160 MW net available for sale to the grid. The balance is consumed to drive CO2 and chemical manufacturing operations at the facility. Discussions for terms of the power off-take arrangements are set at 30-year, fixed price, as a base load generator in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and per volume terms set out in a power purchase agreement. ERCOT operates the regional grid, encompassing the state of Texas and a few bordering regions. At peak demand, ERCOT consumes over 65,000 MW.

  • CO2 – Sales of CO2 are expected to be set up as 15-year, rolling contracts. Wellford explained that the project has attracted interest from multiple parties in EOR markets, looking to draft contracts and sketch out term sheets. The revenue from these CO2 sales is not dependent on carbon legislation, Wellford emphasized. Pricing will be linked to market rates for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark indicator for US oil markets. When up and running, TCEP will operate at a 90 per cent capture rate, yielding some 2.7 million tons of CO2 per year. The annual current demand for CO2 in the region for EOR is estimated to be more than ten times that amount, at 33 million tons. The CO2 will be qualified as Verified Emissions Reductions on the American Carbon Registry.
  • Urea – A major market participant  has contracted to take urea produced by TCEP, and includes the plants full annual production. In this case, prices will be tied to actual secondary sales to downstream consumers, subject to a floor, on the downside, and on the upside, to price sharing mechanisms. Urea production is predicted to hit 720,000 tons per year at full operation. Currently the US market for urea, used primarily as a raw ingredient in fertilizer, is 8.5 million tons per year. Of that, some 5 million tons are imported.

Financing

Wellford emphasized that getting TCEP off the ground has been as much a financial challenge as an engineering feat, and perhaps more so. He commented:

“To finance a project like this, we would typically go to power markets. But they don’t know anything about EOR. To go around the world and try to make a case for an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant for risk, but to educate them in two other industries – chemical fertilizers and oil and gas – that’s a lot harder… We’ve made a lot of progress educating people on how this will work. And I think we’ll succeed, but it hasn’t been easy.”

The TCEP Project is fully funded through project financial close, Wellford said. As of his talk, the bulk (US$1.3 billion, or 52 per cent) of project finance, is coming from debt in the form of bonds and bank loans. The next largest share (US$845 million or 31 per cent) is from equity and tax equity. The balance (US$415 million, 17 per cent) is from an Energy Department grant. He pegged total project costs at US$2.995 billion.

Wellford emphasized the importance that tax benefits have played in bringing TCEP to reality. The project has tapped three separate federal tax incentives, the combined long-term benefit of which totals roughly US$1.49 billion. Here’s how they break down, according to Wellford’s slide:

  • US$313 million: Advanced Coal Program investment tax credit (ITC) at or before COD, awarded in 2010 and contract signed with IRS;
  • US$253 million: carbon sequestration tax credits possible over first 10 years; and
  • US$925 million: MACRS accelerated depreciation tax benefits over first 5 years.

Long-term prospects for CCUS

Wellford made a case that, longer term, CO2 demand in TCEP’s market will continue to rise, further improving TCEP’s financial performance. Responding to a question after his presentation, Wellford explained TCEP modelled its revenue projections at a price of around $20 per ton of CO2, but that market prices since then have risen to over $30 per ton.

In the Permian Basin, which includes West Texas and a few bordering regions, using CO2 for EOR has been going on for more than four decades. Currently, CO2 is moved throughout the region in a network of pipelines operated by Kinder Morgan, Trinity Pipeline and others. The bulk of CO2 transferred into the region comes from geological reservoirs in the Rockies or from CO2 stripped from methane during refinery. Annually about 33 million tons of CO2 is shipped into the region for injection; another 60 to 70 million tons is re-injected back into wells, from CO2 that surfaces with oil and gas.

Each ton of CO2 yields two to three barrels of oil.  Some of the region’s drillers such as Occidental Petroleum produce all of their oil using EOR. Yet the market is short of CO2, and apart from TCEP, there are no other viable sources of anthropogenic CO2 in the region at such a late stage of development. Current geologic CO2 sources are in decline, and while new geological sources have been identified, they are too distant to be economically delivered to the region.

Wellford Energy background

By way of background, Wellford Energy is a financial advisor to clean energy companies and projects in the US, Europe, China, and Latin America. The firm focuses on matching projects with private investment from domestic and international sources, and on non-dilutive public funding. The company focus on climate-friendly technologies, including CCUS, compressed air and other technologies to store renewable energy, and low-carbon transportation technologies. Its partners include Summit Power (which is developing TCEP), Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and Prometheus Capital Partners.

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http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/insights/authors/adamaston/2012/09/12/innovative-funding-groundbreaking-ccus-plant-financing-behind

Project update: Promising results of pilot tests for Codexis’ enzyme-based carbon capture system | Global CCS Institute

On 9 July, Codexis announced promising results from a pilot-scale demonstration of its enzyme-based carbon capture process at the National Carbon Capture Center in Wilsonville, Alabama.

The test, performed on flue gas from a Southern Co. coal-fired power plant, is the largest-ever successful demonstration of enzyme-based carbon capture. The capture rate was the equivalent of “1,800 average sized trees per day,” according to Redwood City (Calif.)-based Codexis.

Though better known for its work developing enzymatic catalysts for the production of advanced (cellulosic) biofuels, Codexis is also tapping its deep know-how in enzyme science to develop a carbon capture technology.

I first caught up with this project on behalf of the Institute last year, when CO2  Solution, of Quebec City, Canada renewed a collaboration with Codexis on biology-based carbon capture technologies.

This project began to take shape back in May 2010, when Codexis received US$4.7 million from the US Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) program to exploit an active enzyme called carbonic anhydrase, or CA, which catalyzes the transfer of CO2 in nature.

Working with enzymes under license from CO2 Solutions, Codexis undertook an effort to rapidly improve the enzyme’s performance. The results: the largest improvement in enzyme performance in Codexis’ history, amounting to a two-million-fold improvement in thermal stability at temperatures between 140oF and 180oF (60oC and 82oC).

The CA enzyme show promise to perform at lower operating temperatures, lower pressures, and lower pH levels than many current and pending processes. A lower operating temperature promises to substantially reduce parasitic energy loss compared to current state-of-the-art monoethanolamine (MEA) technology.

The process shows potential upfront savings for materials, as well. “The benefit of being able to use carbonate solutions is that they’re some of the cheapest, most environmentally benign, most commonly used chemicals,” Alex Zaks, chief technology officer and vice president for research at the St. Louis-based biotech company Akermin told Tamar Hallaman of GHG Monitor. She noted:

Although enzyme-induced capture is still seen by the Department of Energy as an experimental technology, researchers conducting R&D work with the natural catalyst argued that enzymes could be the breakthrough technology needed to help usher in a cheaper and more efficient second wave of carbon capture technologies. “I think this technology can be a game changer,” said Zaks.

According to highlights presented in Pittsburgh on 11 July at the 2012 NETL CO2 Capture Technology Meeting, by Luan Nguyen, a technical engineering manager at Codexis, the system shows the promise to outperform comparable MEA systems by these measures:

  • reduce capex by about 9 per cent compared with a reference model, post-combustion carbon capture plant;
  • decreased parasitic losses of energy for carbon capture by about 30 per cent; and
  • enable a novel biocatalytic process for carbon capture that increases the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by about 41 per cent, less than half the increase predicted for the state-of-the-art MEA process.

As to future steps that could take this technology closer to application, Nguyen mapped out three goals:

  • first, to design and scale-up process and equipment for a larger, 0.1–0.5 MWe slip-stream demonstration, up from the current 10kWe test system. A second-generation system, could potentially reduce the systems’ impact on LCOE to less than 35 per cent, from 41 per cent;
  • second, Codexis hopes to continue to evolve enzyme via its proprietary CodeEvolver technology to further improve system performance and lower production cost; and
  • lastly, the company is looking to engage with strategic partners to pursue commercialization.

For John Nicols, President and CEO of Codexis, the unprecedented large and rapid performance gains the company achieved during these trials highlights the potential for very dramatic gains for enzyme performance in carbon capture, as well as other industrial applications. “Codexis has pushed enzyme-based carbon capture technology to a level that surpassed all expectations,” Nicols said in a statement, “We’ve succeeded in demonstrating that this could be a viable solution.”

The announcement comes on the heels of Nicols’ appointment as new CEO in June. Nicols joined Codexis from Albemarle, a specialty chemicals firm, where he served as Senior Vice President, Strategic Development and Catalysts.

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Check out the original post online here:

http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/insights/authors/adamaston/2012/08/22/project-update-promising-results-pilot-tests-codexis

Computer modeling identifies optimal zeolites that could slash parasitic energy loss, and costs, for CO2 capture | Global CCS Institute

Dramatic advancements in software efficiency, hardware speed, and modeling accuracy have helped scientists assess a huge database of some 4 million CO2 absorbing minerals, pointing the way to new, lower-cost carbon capture methods.

The researchers have identified a large group of extant and new zeolite materials that could help lower, by as much as a third, the parasitic energy costs associated with removing CO2 from power plant emissions.

Published online in May 2012 in the journal Nature Materials, the anlysis was developed by scientists from three institutions: the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) at the University of California, Berkeley, and Rice University in Houston, Texas.

In the new study, researchers identified dozens of zeolites — many commonly used in industrial processes — that could significantly improve the energy efficiency of carbon capture technology.

“We believe we can beat current state-of-the-art carbon capture technology by about 30 per cent,” study co-author Michael Deem, Rice’s John W. Cox Professor of Bioengineering and professor of physics and astronomy said in a phone interview. Reducing parasitic power losses during CO2capture could increase a generator’s sellable electric power “by 10, or maybe 15, per cent” based on a back-of-the-envelope estimate, said Deem. “That’s a lot of money.”

The predicted performance gains are relative to current methods, where CO2 is bubbled through a bath of amines. To release the CO2, the amines are heated to boiling, and then the CO2 is compressed into a liquid to be sequestered or used otherwise. Up to one third of the power plant’s steam output is diverted to boil the amines and liquefy the CO2 for shipment.

Computer rendering of the carbon-capture characteristics of a zeolite structure. The arrangement of (red) oxygen atoms and (tan) silicon atoms influences the pore spaces, depicted as green, blue, grey colored surfaces, where CO2 can be captured. Credit: B. Smit/UC-Berkeley.

The new study used computational techniques to identify zeolites that promise to absorb and release CO2 using less energy. Deem explained that Zeolites are a good candidate for this role because they have long been studied, and are used industrially to refine gasoline, as well as to make laundry detergent and other chemically engineered products.

Speaking with GHG News, co-author Berend Smit, a professor of Chemical and Bimolecular Engineering at the University of California-Berkeley, explained:

This round of testing focused exclusively on parasitic load, or the energy penalty needed to separate the CO2 from flue gas, currently considered one of the major cost barriers to the commercial deployment of CCS.

[…]“If the parasitic energy doesn’t go down significantly, then it’s not worth looking at other properties,” Smit said. Of those 5 million materials tested, Smit said roughly 500 turned out to be “promising”…

Comprised mostly of silicon and oxygen, the performance of Zeolites varies by their nanoscale porosity. Made up primarily of silicon and oxygen molecules, the size and shape of pores vary by the geometric linkages made between molecules. In a chemical reaction, each pore acts like as microscopic reaction vessels, bonding and interacting with molecules that fit into the cavity.

The work of Deem et al., focused on sorting through a huge database of zeolite compositions. The roots of the work date back to 2007, when Deem and his colleagues used computers to calculate millions of atomic formulations for zeolites. Adding to this catalog since then, Deem’s database now contains some 4 million structures of zeolite.

In this latest study, the researchers pushed zeolite analysis to a higher level, using a new computer model designed by a team at Berkeley/LBNL to identify candidates well suited for CO2 capture. This model was refined with the addition of technical criteria of ideal carbon capture material, provided by technical experts at EPRI.

Coordinating Deem’s existing zeolite data, with new computational methods, add the additional CO2-capture characteristics, the team predicted the energy demands to capture and release CO2 for all the materials in the zeolite database.

Hardware advancements played a big role too. Given the complexity of the analysis, conventional computational methods using central processing units — or CPUs, the costly, complex chips that serve as the brain of most PCs — would have taken roughly five years to simulate each of the millions of zeolite models in Deem’s database.

Instead, the Berkeley/LBNL team adapted the model to run on graphics processing units, or GPUs, which are specialized, lower-cost processors typically used to render graphics in computers. Switching to GPUs, Deem explained, was integral to the project’s success: “It would have been unfeasibly large to do the old way. Instead of years, the calculation took about a month.”

The graph (below) summarizes the researchers’ findings. The green line gives the current cost of CO2capture through amine recovery. Red dots represent commerciall- available zeolites, while blue dots (both solid and circles) are predicted materials.

“The black curve is the envelope of the best possible performance, within zeolites,” explained Deem. “So if yours is close to this, you can be confident you’re close to best performance.”

The model suggests there are dozens of currently available Zeolites that promise to capture carbon at lower costs than current amine processes.  Speaking with GHG News, Smit explained the top candidates will go through further analysis to assess other criteria, such as diffusion limitations and reactions with water.

And if those fail to yield viable performance characteristics or are unavailable because of patent issues, Deem added, the model predicts a large number of viable compounds that can begin to be explored.

As industry begins to sort through the candidates his research has helped identify, Deem is looking forward to add still further attributes to his zeolite database, to further refine for CO2 performance as well as mapping out other potentially valuable chemical interactions.

The team’s research was supported by the Department of Energy (DOE), the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) and EPRI’s Office of Technology Innovation.

Check out the original post here: http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/community/blogs/authors/adamaston/2012/07/18/computer-modeling-identifies-optimal-zeolites-could

NEORI’s promise: Pairing utilities with big oil to revitalize CCS development – Part 2 | Global CCS Institute

It’s rare that a big industry has a major appetite for the waste of another huge industry. Yet when that happens, shouldn’t it be a no-brainer for the two to get together and solve one another’s problems?

In the case of carbon capture, the utility and oil sectors are trying to do just that – though with limited success to date.

The utility sector has a super abundance of waste CO2 it hopes to dispose of constructively. What’s more, it can benefit from deep-pocketed offtakers to help fund development of carbon capture systems.

Meanwhile, vast regions of the US oil industry are nearly desperate for fresh sources of CO2. to help drive oil out of ageing wells in a process known as enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Their current sources of CO2, mostly geologic CO2 reservoirs, are maxed out.

Yet so far, the two big industries haven’t been able to join forces on a large scale. This market mismatch may soon find a solution if a coalition led by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions in Washington, DC can push through the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative.

NEORI brings together key industry players from the oil and utility sectors and proposes a set of revenue-positive federal and state incentives that will help spur the construction of a first generation of carbon capture infrastructure on power plants and other industrial emitters, to feed the CO2 to the oil industry. As important, perhaps the effort has attracted bipartisan support in an era of near-paralysis on many political fronts.

To learn more the promise, mechanics and timing of NEORI, I connected with Eileen Claussen, President of C2ES, and Judi Greenwald, Vice President for Technology and Innovation at C2ES. The second half of our conversation follows. The first part was published last week..

What’s the potential impact of this approach on domestic oil supplies?

Eileen Claussen: NEORI estimates that our proposed new federal tax credit for captured CO2 capture will quadruple the amount of domestic oil currently produced annually through enhanced oil recovery –to 400 million barrels a year in the outyears – while cutting CO2 emissions by a total of 4 billion tons over the next 40 years. In addition, we will be generating new tax revenue for states and for the federal government, as I said, these incentives will more than pay for themselves. And we will be gaining vital experience and creating valuable infrastructure supporting broader deployment of carbon capture and sequestration in the future.

CO2 captured from varying sources – whether coal fired power plants, or industrial factories, or other – will come at different costs, yet we need to develop capture solutions for all of them. How does NEORI work to encourage development of CO2 capture from a range of potential sources?

Judi Greenwald: The cost of carbon capture at power plants and industrial facilities varies considerably. Also, CO2 capture technologies are in different stages of development, and as with any emerging technology, costs will fall over time after repeated demonstrations. This is why NEORI recommends establishing tranches and sub-tranches for different technologies under a competitive bidding process. The three main tranches would be a pioneer tranche, an electric power tranche, and an industrial tranche. The pioneer tranche would be for commercial-scale, ‘first-mover’ projects that would only move forward with sufficient government support to offset the technical and financial risk of CCS in both the electric power and industrial sectors. The other two tranches would be for projects using more advanced CCS technology in the electric power and industrial sectors. The industrial tranche would include sub-tranches for both lower-cost and higher-cost CCS technologies. Overall, the goal is to ensure that sufficient credits are allocated across all applications for CCS. This approach would take advantage of lower-cost carbon capture sources to pay for the incentives for higher-cost carbon capture sources. It would drive costs down in the tranches with the highest current capture costs, but take advantage of the sources with the greatest CO2 supply potential.

As proposed, NEORI promises to gain bipartisan support. This is remarkable in particular for a climate technology, and all the more so in an era of intense partisanship. How do the politics line up on this issue?

Eileen Claussen: At a time of economic struggle, fiscal crisis and political gridlock, we at C2ES believe the NEORI proposal is an encouraging example of how we can and must make progress on the climate and energy challenges we face. As much as we would like to see comprehensive solutions to our climate and energy challenges, those solutions are not on the immediate horizon. But if we come at these issues one by one, look for opportunities where interests converge, and are open to compromise, we can arrive at practical solutions benefiting our economy, our security and the environment.

At the Capitol Hill event where NEORI announced our recommendations in February, a bipartisan group of members of Congress were on hand to express their support. Given the political gridlock in Washington in this election year, it was reassuring to see lawmakers from both political parties step up and say they agree that this is important work. Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) and Congressman Mike Conaway (R-TX) welcomed the NEORI’s recommendations at the Capitol Hill event. Senators Max Baucus (D-MT), Kent Conrad (D-ND), John Hoeven (R-ND), Richard Lugar (R-IN), and Congressmen Mike Conaway (R-TX) and Rick Berg (R-ND) released written statements of support.

Where are we on the timeline for NEORI? What next?

Eileen Claussen: Will we see comprehensive legislation on this issue pass the Congress this year? That’s unlikely. But we do think we have a shot at Section 45Q reform this year. Still, the NEORI recommendations have started the conversation and we feel optimistic that we can see progress on this issue in the not-too-distant future no matter who controls the Presidency and the Congress next year.

Rarely in the current political climate do Republican and Democratic lawmakers in Washington rally together in support of anything. So we need to make the most of this opportunity. Everyone who supports CO2-EOR has an obligation to educate their representatives in Washington and in state capitals around the country about the benefits this can deliver for our economy, our national security and the environment.

Scaling up CO2-EOR means bringing together vastly different business cultures – the oil industry and the utility sector – along with environmental groups. How do you bridge these gaps?

Eileen Claussen: The idea behind this initiative was to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders and try to come to agreement about what needs to happen to realize CO2-EOR’s potential. This is why the NEORI coalition includes industry, environmental advocacy groups, labor, and state officials who can work on both sides of the aisle and at both the state and federal level to stimulate the expansion of CO2-EOR.

Were these conversations easy? In a word, no. The diversity of the group meant we had some very tough discussions.

But in the spirit of the saying ‘nothing that is worthwhile is easy’, the final participants in this project stuck with it, and they reached consensus recommendations.

The petroleum industry regards CO2 from EOR as permanently stored. But for experts, policy makers, and regulators from the CCS world, this question is open. What do we know about the permanence of CO2-EOR?

Judi Greenwald: CO2 injection in EOR wells is regulated under existing policies and regulations. CO2 is contained by a series of physical and chemical trapping mechanisms over time. Experience from commercial-scale CO2-EOR projects, some of which have been in operation for decades, shows that CO2-EOR can be performed in a manner that is safe for both human health and the environment. The University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology’s Gulf Coast Carbon Center has found no evidence of CO2 leakage from the SACROC oil field, where CO2 has been injected for EOR since 1972 (NEORI: CO2-EOR Safety).

Has there been any modeling on the net CO2 impact of this approach, given that units of anthropogenic CO2 are pushed into the ground to liberate units of petroleum CO2?

Judi Greenwald: To get at the net impact, the key question is: what would have happened otherwise? NEORI’s view is that CO2-EOR displaces other oil production that also would have resulted in CO2emissions, so any emissions benefit from the COcapture is a net benefit. Also, using captured CO2 clearly has net CO2 benefits compared to using naturally-occurring CO2.

With that said, there are a range of estimates as to how large the net emissions benefit is. For example, one study estimates that the Weyburn CO2-EOR project produces oil that is ’40 pe rcent carbon-free’ compared to conventional oil production due to stored CO2 emissions that offset tailpipe CO2 emissions (see Taglia, Enhanced Oil Recovery, July 2010, page 14).

We think more work is necessary in this area. It is necessary to better quantify the emissions benefit of CO2-EOR because it will help make the case for CO2-EOR.

See the original story here: http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/community/blogs/authors/adamaston/2012/07/10/neori%E2%80%99s-promise-pairing-utilities-big-oil-revitalize

NEORI’s promise: Pairing utilities with big oil to revitalize CCS development – Part 1 | Global CCS Institute

What’s in a letter? In the case of carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS, the ever more frequent addition of a U – short for use, or utilization – to the familiar acronym crystalizes a shift in thinking. Carbon dioxide is increasingly being seen as a potential money-making byproduct, rather than simply as a costly, harmful waste to entomb.

This shift got an official nod in May with the renaming of a top US meeting in the field. Over the past decade, EPRI – the Electric Power Research Institute, the research arm of the US utility industry– has convened an annual CCS meeting. Last month, that acronym grew by a U, to CCUS, with the opening of the 11th Annual Carbon Capture, Utilization & Sequestration Conference in Pittsburgh.

Even as publicly-backed CCS efforts are facing funding woes and political friction, CCUS is gaining traction precisely because of that U. The oil industry boasts deep pockets and a nearly insatiable appetite for CO2. Today, the industry gets its CO2 from natural deposits, but those are running out, even as demand is rising. When pumped into ageing oil wells at high pressures, CO2 has a unique ability to push out oil left behind by most other extraction techniques. What’s more, with more than 40 years of monitoring of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites, petroleum engineers are certain the CO2 stays put when pumped into these wells.

The marriage of EOR with CCS shows tantalizing promise to help fund efforts to scale up CCS processes, dramatically boosting US output from extant oil fields, all while potentially stashing gigaton-volumes of CO2 back into the earth. “CO2-EOR is perhaps the option with the greatest near- to mid- term potential, but the one about which policy makers know the least,” says Judi Greenwald, vice president for technology and innovation at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) in Washington, D.C.

If EOR-CCS is such a game changer, why haven’t the oil and utility industries tied up a deal sooner? In short, price. The cost of captured COhas been too high, and oil has been too cheap. But with the former inching down and the later rising steadily, efforts are intensifying to nudge these two huge industries. If so, big oil can help fund the development of large-scale CCS. Today, oil drillers are buying CO2for EOR at around US$40 per ton, about half of what it costs to extract CO2 from current-generation CCS facilities. Of course, if the scale of CCS grew, CO2 prices would fall as the technology improved. Yet funding large scale projects has remained a work-in-progress.

Speaking at EPRI’s CCUS meeting last month, Greenwald and Eileen Claussen, president of C2ES, outlined an ambitious vision to solve this market inefficiency. Spearheaded by C2ES, the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative (NEORI) brings together key industry players from the oil and utility sectors and proposes a set of revenue-positive federal and state incentives that will help spur the construction of a first generation of carbon capture infrastructure on power plants and other industrial emitters, to feed the CO2 to the oil industry. As important, in an era of near paralysis on many political fronts, the effort has attracted bipartisan support.

I followed up with Eileen and Judi after the conference to get their take on the promise, mechanics and timing of NEORI. The first half of our conversation follows. The second half will be posted next week.

In the US, the past year or two has seen a shift in the focus on sequestering CO2, to using CO2 whether as an input for chemical processes, or to help with enhanced oil recovery. Does CCUS represent a bridge to CCS?

Eileen Claussen: The potential for CCS to reduce emissions is undeniable. Studies show that CCS technology could reduce COemissions from a coal-fueled power plant by as much as 90 percent. Modelling done by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that CCS could provide 19 percent of total global GHG emission reductions by 2050. That includes reductions from coal and natural gas-fired power plants, as well as all other sources.

But what we are doing right now to develop these technologies is not enough; it’s not even close to enough. We have two decades at most to deploy these technologies at the scale needed to achieve substantial reductions in emissions.

The participants in the NEORI believe that EOR using captured CO2 offers a safe and commercially proven method of expanding domestic oil production that can help the U.S. simultaneously meet future need for domestic oil, spur domestic investment, and help advance CCS as well.

This approach shifts the CCS problem from a largely public cost, into one where the private sector has incentive to invest. How do NEORI’s participants prioritize these benefits?

Eileen Claussen: NEORI’s participants agree that energy security, domestic investment, and environmental protection are important. But different participants would prioritize these goals differently. We all agree on the solution – incentivizing the use of captured CO2 in enhanced oil recovery – but we don’t necessarily agree on which reasons for doing that are most important. For some, the highest priority is increasing our nation’s energy security by reducing dependence on foreign oil, including oil that is imported from unstable and hostile nations. CO2-EOR potential in the United States equals 26-61 billion barrels of oil with existing technology. With next-generation techniques, the potential rises to 67 to around 140 billion barrels. Current US proven reserves are estimated to be 20 billion barrels, so we are talking about at least doubling US. oil potential. That’s huge.

For others, the highest priority that CO2-EOR addresses is creating economic opportunity. If we do this right, it will create jobs, boost tax revenues, and reduce the US trade deficit. We can put dollars we now spend on oil imports to work right here in the US economy.

How much money are we talking about? One estimate, from Advanced Resources International, projects that the reduction in oil imports associated with CO2-EOR would add up, year by year, to US$600 billion by 2030. (For further details on economic impacts, NEORI: Economic Benefits of CO2-EOR.)

And for still others, the priority addressed by CO2-EOR is protecting the environment. Capturing and storing CO2 from industrial facilities and power plants will reduce US greenhouse gas emissions, while getting more American crude from areas already developed for oil and gas production. By fully developing American reserves that are amenable to this practice, we could reduce CO2 emissions by 10-19 billion tons, an amount equal to 10-20 years of emissions from personal vehicle use in this country.

And the bonus is that it can help us further the commercial deployment of the CCS industry in this country – not just with coal and natural gas power plants, but with other domestic industries such as natural gas processing, ethanol and ammonia production, and steel and cement manufacturing. Driving innovation in CCS technology will allow us both to take advantage of our nation’s vast fossil fuel resources and achieve much larger CO2 emission reductions.

I have worked on the climate issue for many years now, and I assure you this is a big deal. Reducing US CO2 emissions by up to 19 billion tons while also advancing CCS technology would be a major achievement.

Can you put this in context? Relative to the other climate and energy solutions on the table, from renewables, to EVs, to greener buildings, how does CO2-EOR stack up?

Judi Greenwald: Of the many solutions to our climate and energy challenges we are working on here at C2ES, CO2-EOR is perhaps the option with the greatest near to mid- term potential, but the one about which policy makers know the least. CO2-EOR is an important strategy for deploying CCS, which will be needed to keep coal (and natural gas) as part of our electricity generation portfolio while reducing CO2 emissions across economic sectors. But public and policymaker awareness of the potential of CO2-EOR is limited, despite its diverse benefits. CO2-EOR offers the opportunity to enhance national security, decrease foreign trade deficits, and create domestic jobs and economic opportunity. What’s more, tax incentives given for CO2-EOR are likely to pay for themselves as federal and state governments receive revenues from increased EOR oil production.

What’s the problem with the current federal treatment of CO2 and how does NEORI propose to change them?

Eileen Claussen: Today, the major hurdle preventing the growth of EOR is there’s not enough readily-available CO2. And this is why our organization joined with the Great Plains Institute to convene the NEORI.

NEORI’s centerpiece recommendation is a competitively awarded, revenue-positive federal production tax credit for capturing and transporting CO2 to stimulate CO2-EOR expansion. This federal tax credit would more than pay for itself because it will lead to additional oil production subject to existing tax treatment (see below a chart forecasting cost of such an incentive, along with the increased tax revenues generated by increased oil output). The new incentive will enable a variety of industry sectors to market new sources of CO2 to the oil industry, and to reduce their carbon footprints. It will drive innovation and cost reduction in CO2 capture and compression, and help build out a national CO2 pipeline system.

For the near term and until the broader credit is in place, NEORI also recommends specific ‘good government’ changes to improve the workability of the existing carbon capture and storage credit known as Section 45Q.

Of course, states also have an important role to play in fostering CO2-EOR deployment. This is why NEORI identifies existing state policies that should serve as models for policymakers in other states to adopt and tailor to their particular needs. These policies include cost recovery for CCS power projects, long-term off-take agreements for CCS power, severance tax reductions for oil produced by CO2-EOR, and others.

Federal tax incentives: Annual revenues, annual costs, and net annual revenues to the Government (2013-2052) (Millions of $)

Watch for the second half of this interview next week.

Check out the original post here: http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/community/blogs/authors/adamaston/2012/07/06/neori%E2%80%99s-promise-pairing-utilities-big-oil-revitalize

MIT study refines estimate of CO2 storage capacity of US saline aquifers | GCCSI

Deep, saline aquifers in the US have sufficient capacity to sequester a century’s worth of CO2emissions from the nation’s coal-fired power plants, according to a research team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who published their findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on April 3.

The findings substantially refine estimates of the storage capacity of these reservoirs, which the Global CCS Institute recognizes as having the most promising potential of any geological storage option. Previous measures of their capacity in the US spanned from a few years’ of CO2 emissions, to tens of thousands of years’ worth.

Earlier assessments tended to oversimplify the problem, leading to the wide range. “We felt that there was such a big disparity in numbers out there that CCS deserved a closer look,” team leader Ruben Juanes, MIT’s ARCO Associate Professor in Energy Studies in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, told The New York Times.

MIT researchers improved the accuracy of these estimates by building a more detailed mathematical model. Previous models were “missing some of the nuances of the physics,” said Christopher MacMinn, a doctoral researcher and co-author of the study, via a press release.

Image: MIT

The MIT team modeled micron-scale fluid dynamics to better understand how liquefied CO2 is trapped in deep saline aquifers. Including some 20 parameters, the team designed the mathematical model to be flexible enough to evaluate the potential of saline aquifer formations at the scale of hundreds of miles, and in different regions of the US.

“The key is capturing the essential physics of the problem,” said Michael Szulczewski, a doctoral researcher and co-author of the study, “but simplifying it enough so it could be applied to the entire country.”

Using glass beads to simulate the way liquefied CO2 would percolate through the tiny poor spaces of deep rock formations, the approach helped the MIT team to better understand rates of injection and how the CO2 is sequestered through the dynamics of capillary trapping and solubility trapping. Of key concern was estimating the pressure and rates of CO2 injection necessary to prevent fracturing of the reservoir or its over-capping structures.

The study “demonstrates that the rate of injection of CO2 into a reservoir is a critical parameter in making storage estimates,” said Howard Herzog, a senior research engineer with the MIT Energy Initiative and another co-author of the PNAS paper, in a release.

While this study is focused on the saline aquifers in the US, the method can be extended to similar geologies around the world, MacMinn added.

The abstract for the paper, Lifetime of carbon capture and storage as a climate-change mitigation technology is published at PNAS.

Also, below is a video where Juanes and his team members explain their work. The first half-minute or so is a basic overview of carbon storage. Stick with it; starting around 0:45 Szulczewski goes into greater detail of the model’s approach to the subsurface dynamics of CO2 injection.

Project update: In Canada, partners pull the plug on CA$1.4billion TransAlta CCS project | GCCSI

A group of energy companies abandoned a project to capture, use and store 1 million tons of CO2 per year from the flues of an Alberta coal-fired power plant.

Pointing to weak project economics, TransAlta, Canada’s largest investor-owned electricity generator announced on 26 April that its partners Capital Power and Enbridge would halt the CA$1.4billion project after completing initial engineering and design studies. Construction was due to start this year.

According to TransAlta’s first quarter results, the partners “determined that although the technology works and capital costs are in line with expectations, the revenue from carbon sales and the price of emissions reductions are insufficient…”. The Pioneer plant aimed to sell CO2 for enhanced oil recovery, but found no firm buyers.

“What’s really needed, of course, is a regulatory framework on CO2 that puts a value on that CO2 – a significant value,” Don Wharton, vice-president of policy and sustainability at TransAlta, told The Globe and Mail. Wharton added that: “If [a price on carbon is] done properly, then CCS projects, as well as other emissions-reducing projects, would be more encouraged to go ahead.”

The province of Alberta currently charges certain industrial emitters CA$15 per ton of CO2 beyond a pre-determined level. That price doesn’t support the cost of the project, and there’s “little certainty on future revenue”, Cheryl Wilson, carbon capture and storage analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance told Bloomberg News. “Pioneer had too many factors working against it.”

Located about 70 kilometers west of Edmonton, the project was slated to capture 1 million tons of CO2 from the exhaust of TransAlta’s Keephills 3 facility, a 450-megawatt coal-fired power plant that went on line in September 2011 at a cost of roughly CA$2 billion.

A portion of the captured CO2 was to be sold to oil and gas drillers operating in the nearby Pembina oil fields, to enhance the recovery of oil from mature wells. Another share of CO2 was to be permanently sequestered in deep saline formations nearby, as well.

The Pioneer project was granted public funding in October 2009. The lion’s share, CA$436 million, was committed by the province of Alberta, and another CA$343 million was pledged by the Canadian Government. The Global CCS Institute also put up AU$5 million.

According to TransAlta, the company and its partners had spent just CA$30 million on the project to date, with CA$20million of that coming from government.

Speaking to Thomson Reuters News, Chris Severson-Baker, managing director of the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental think tank, said: “Within Alberta, this was the one coal-plant application of CCS and it was the most important application. There are significant emissions from coal operations… and there are few other options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from those types of operations without CCS.”

Meanwhile, the province has funded three other CCUS projects which will reach critical decision points in the next year or so. These are: